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Gold/Mining/Energy : Daytrading Canadian stocks in Realtime -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: parker_meridian who wrote (52832)	8/8/2001 10:55:08 AM
From: Vitalsigns	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 62348

Yes, even more so after CSCo numbers confirmed what I expected. If Csco only expects 20% growth then even if they were to squeak out a $2 billion profit( Not a hope in hell but just for example), then at a 20 times earnings ratio CSCo should be trading at a market cap closer to $40 billion or $6 share US versus current 18.90 Us . They would need to grow at an aggressive 67% pace to even come close to justify there current market cap , and also assuming that they would generate at least $2 billion in profit. That is only 1 of many many companies in the same boat. This is no longer a hold overnight market because profits are the key focus and no longer growth as it was in 99 and 2000. Many will say that it does not matter if you are a trader, maybe, maybe not , as long as you are a true daytrader and do not hold overnight then yes you can make money, A lot less than before as the swings have been crushed with decimalization , and liquidity is quickly leaving the markets for safer pastures. The consumer in the US , the last bastion of this economy maybe already in penny pinching mode with the consumer credit number out yesterday that had expected a $7 billion dollar increase and instead got a $1.6 Billion dollar decrease. If they begin to stop spending , they are definitely not going to be putting their money in the markets. Markets need money to rise, without that boost it only has one place to go , down. Every reduction in earnings projection out by every company reporting actually increases the PE ratio of the stocks even though the stocks are falling. The problem is that earnings are falling faster then the stocks. Either we see a big upswing in earnings soon or a correction in stock valuations to bring this back in line. Take your pick but I don't see it as growth. You can see momentum slowly drifting away as everybody realizes that even if they miss the next $1 rise in an overvalued stock , they are not missing much because the longer they wait to buy it the cheaper it will be . Welcome to the world of stock market deflation. The question is , are you good enough to be able to hold onto a stock overnight just once and make the mistake of catching the day were the stock drops 50% . You had better use rigorous money management , otherwise the gains made for the year will be gone in a nano second. From now until Spring 2002 we start to view things in a more negative light, thats just the way it is, and the markets are the same, come spring , positive attitudes prevail and so do the markets. Which is why I am on high alert until Spring 2002 at a minimum. The valuations will correct, either with a crash (quick pain) or a slow chinese water torture decline (slow pain). See you at the bottom. Good luck Vitalsigns

To: parker_meridian who wrote (52832)	8/8/2001 2:09:16 PM
From: Vitalsigns	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 62348

Is this the kind of headlines one would expect to lead a rally ?? Fed says US economy still sluggish in summer WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. economy remained sluggish in June and July, as the recent slide in the manufacturing sector began to creep into other areas of the economy, the Federal Reserve said Wednesday. "Reports from most Federal Reserve Districts point to slow growth or lateral movement in economic activity in June and July," the Fed said in its anecdotal survey of national economic conditions, also known as the "beige book." Weakness in the factory sector was seen in almost all regions, the central bank said. "Sustained weakness in the manufacturing sector spilled over to other businesses, with many Districts indicating declines in demand for office space and trucking and shipping services," the Fed said. The report, compiled by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco based on information gathered before July 30, will be used by the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee when it next meets to set interest rates on Aug. 21. The FOMC is widely expected to cut interest rates for a seventh time this year as it attempts to prop up a shaky U.S. economy. The Fed has already cut rates by a total of 2.75 percentage points this year. news.excite.com Looks like its spreading like the plague and hitting all regions and ,most importantly all sectors. Looks like XMas 2001 is gonna be a bust this year for retail. Do you think that the Fed cutting another 25 or 50 basis points off the curent rate of 3.75 % will fix overvaluation problems or have any serious impact on earnings growth over the next 6 months ? I don't think so, all the rate cuts are good for now is to try keep psychological support from going bust , but that going to happen wether the fed cuts or not , just a matter of time. Vitalsigns