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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (50299)	8/8/2001 10:03:31 PM
From: michael97123	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Brian, This assassination of the productivity/cisco/chip/nasdaq rally has come at the hands of analyst guesses at the future rather than hard facts. It smacks very much of the situation that occurred at the top. I looked at the cisco earnings and conference call and came away cautiously optimistic. Previously i found even more optimism in what nvls and lsi had said a week ago. Time still is on our side, however i fear a retest of the april lows now more than i did a month or so ago when it should have been more likely. If we go back there we may actually get to see new lows. We are now at those critical numbers on the dow and nasdaq that have proved to be the bottom each time before. Cash is on the sidelines but hesitant to move because buyers have been burned on every rally this year. I hope we will rally tomorrow. I would hate to go into a summer friday and then monday after a loss tomorrow. 1800's would result in that scenario i am afraid. What we need is a good piece of news. It may yet come from Greenspan with a 1/2 pointer after the beige book release today. (What a surprise that business sucked in june and july!). I think that would be well received in a no inflation environment. Perhaps we are just one positive piece of news away from a rally with legs. What would have happened if Chambers had been real bullish? Perhaps the beige book which looks in the rear view mirror would not have had an impact and a bullish cisco scenario + productivity would have jump started the market and to some extent the market. Maybe the ceo's are being extremely cautious here as well with big brother watching. Maybe the analysts are goose stepping in reverse to music that has played itself out? Mike