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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pgerassi who wrote (141142)	8/9/2001 5:21:59 AM
From: wanna_bmw	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

Pete, Re: "Have a problem with math? 27 million times $8 each is $216 million, not $100 million." No I don't have a problem with math. As a matter of fact, I took the $100 million number from Noel's post because I don't have the patience to sort through your Numbers Game. You can play with numbers all you want, but in the end there are too many unknowns, and you'll eventually have to make certain assumptions. It's those assumptions that bother me, because without the facts, you're liable to make mistakes in your logic. By now I hope you realize that numbers were not the point of my post. What I was trying to say was that whatever price war is rumored to go on was not thought up spur-of-the-moment by some marketing guy out of a Dilbert comic strip. Otellini and Bryant knew full well about price cuts when they mentioned that they would bring Pentium 4 systems down to $800 price points. They said this during their Q2 CC. But, they also said that Q3 guidance would be between $6.2 and $6.8 billion. Given Intel's previous operating costs, a several hundred million dollar loss would put Q3 revenues far, far below these estimates. So either you believe they are lying, or your theories of much lower revenues due to an out-of-control price war don't have a reliable basis. If you believe they are lying, it would be good for you to short INTC right away. A lie that numbers in the billions of dollars would put Intel stock in the single digits, given their current EPS. But my other point was that, historically, Intel has never mislead investors during earnings forecasts. They are either dead on, or they will warn enough ahead of time for investors to adjust the stock before the earnings take place. Like it or not, if we do not hear some strict warnings from Intel in the next month, you should expect revenue to at least hit $6.2 billion, which would still yield GAAP earnings in positive (although disappointing) territory. wanna_bmw