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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (50321)	8/9/2001 3:10:59 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

from CSFB 8/7/01: You can pay too much for good companies. We have been struggling with valuations all year. Stocks look expensive on just about every metric: As part of our downgrade of the sector(See our note dated 08/07/01), we are downgrading AMAT to Hold from Buy. We would become more aggressive in the AMAT at $30 or 10X estimated peak EPS potential next cycle of $3.05. At current valuation, SCE stocks will not provide much upside even if we are wrong on our fundamental analysis. Bottom-line: we believe that going forward, stocks in our universe will "BEST CASE" market/underperform and more likely continue to have significant downside risk of greater than 30% from current levels as investors confront the depth and duration of the current downturn.

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (50321)	8/9/2001 3:17:03 PM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

There seems to be at least 2 Service Provider views re rolling out broadband. Jean Monty (BCE Chairman) regards ADSL as the enabler of a spate of revenue generating services. As such, he's aggressively rolling it out and going after market share throughout Bell Canada's territory. On the other hand, many of the RBOCs seem to regard DSL as the ultimate service and seem to be attempting to become profitable on that service in the early phase of its rollout. I suspect that Monty's approach will not only generate more revenue but also more profit as long as one's horizon exceeds 2 or 3 years. IMO, Ian

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (50321)	8/9/2001 3:42:28 PM
From: John Trader	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

The quantitative answers you seek will come when it is too late to take advantage of them. Also, this is quite related to your "quantitative" world of chip/chip equipment companies. If there is no growth to the internet, then demand for chips and chip equipment will slow as well. Technology marches forward despite our ability to see what is coming. For example, who called the PC revolution, the emergence of the internet? Who had the answers back then? The truth is nobody did. Andrew Grove was interviewed yesterday and he pointed out that when they invented the 8088 they did not think much of it, and of course they were totally surprised later on. One attraction of bandwidth related stocks is that we know bandwidth will open up, it is just a matter of time. I think several good points were made in the article that I posted. You seem very critical of other people's views and very negative overall. I have received several replies from you that fit this description. I tend to be just the opposite. That is perhaps why we are bound to butt heads here on this AMAT thread. I appreciate good inputs, but grow tired of constant negativity in the midst of the greatest technology revolution the world has ever seen. Also this thread is supposed to be a place where we share ideas in a constructive manner. We should encourage different points of view, as this tends to offset the tendency towards group-think, which usually ends up being wrong (e.g. the bearish consensus now on telecom related stocks - at prices far below where the "crowd" previously recommended them). I have a suggestion. How about you stop replying to my posts, and I will stop replying to yours. John