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To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (17220)	8/13/2001 1:48:49 PM
From: Andrew Vance	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 17305

Anything is possible. I am still tryiong to figure out why AMAT bought ETEC. Apparently my assumption that it might be for advanced "direct write wafer systems" (as opposed to the current mask making) down the road, may have a flaw. With the advances in DUV, EUV, and even X-ray, the low throughput of a direct wrtie system for wafer production may not have a big enough market. Again, why AMAT would buy ETEC, whose customer base is so small, is still a puzzle. To think that JMAR would be a candidate for takeover does not seem likely at this time, but I can make a very good case for it, since you broached the subject. AMAT is missing exposure tools as part of their portfolio of productions, thereby limiting it from becoming a truly "womb to tomb" provider of IC manufacturing equipment. As a real long term prospect, getting into X-ray lithography could have its merits. the merits would actually be outside of the actual tool itself, but in the equipment needed to support those tools. Traditional Chrome and quartz reticles will not work in x-ray systems, since the x-rays would travel through these substrates. You would probably be looking at gold instead of chrome and Boron Nitride instead of quartz. The process and equipment required to produce X-ray reticles would require some sophisticated process equipment that is currently in AMAT's product portfolio. Therefore, if we make x-ray lithography plausible, we create some good opportunities to sell expand AMAT's other equipment business. Of course, it would also be interesting to see if the ETEC platform of reticle writing could be adapted for direct write x-ray lithography, understanding full well that we would have to go through the stepper and "step and scan" phase first. All and all this is too far out to consider at this time frame, and I believe AMAT as well as their peers, are more interested in today anbd tomorrow, not next week, They are trying to work their way out of a horrific downturn, trying to conserve resources. With x-ray litho so far down the curve, I think JMAR has at least 5 years to wait until they become interesting to a company like AMAT, even at current price levels. But then again, if I were AMAT, I am not sure I would have gone after ETEC like they did.<GGG> And to asnwer your question directly, "is it at all likely that JMAR will be able to exist independently if indeed they have promising technology for the SCE arena?", I would say it makes sense to gobble JMAR up as a long term strategic investment, if you can afford to let the company to stagnate as a profit center for a period of 5 years, and have the money or stock shares to spare. Here is the rub, though. I would put my money to better use, as an equipment company, by using cash for a share repurchase plan. I would also, in the current environment, not be using stock as currency, since many of the companies have their share prices at ridiculously low levels, if we indeed have a recovery within the next year. I would rather pay 50% more for JMAR, 1-2 years from now, as an acquiring company, knowing that my share price will probably be double that of the current price levels. The name of the game is to use overinflated stock to buy companies, and not use undervalued shares.<GGG> Andrew