Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mary Cluney who wrote (141259)	8/11/2001 12:01:33 PM
From: pgerassi	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

Dear Mary: The calculations are an upper bound of revenue in given conditions. One of the assumptions is that all else remains stable and that is the best that can be hoped for. True, Xeons may gain market share, but if the unit market is shrinking, that probably means the the same quantity is sold QoQ. The ASPs probably will go down as a majority of them are small cache and they will trend with the PC CPU ASPs. I assumed that they would be constant and that is an upper bound for them as well. Thus Xeon revenue probably will decrease but I assumed no decrease in those calculations both for simplicity and for getting a best case in a flat market. I figure that Intel sells about 100K to 200K Large cache Xeons a quarter. Take the average at about 150K and those probably wind up in about 50K servers mostly, 2 and 4 way. The Xeon large cache CPU ASP is about $1000 somewhere around 600 to 700MHz. Small cache Xeon CPUs make up the bulk at an ASP of $300 of 1.35 million units mostly in 1 to 2 ways or about 900K servers. Thus, total units of 1.5 million Xeons have an ASP of $370 for a total of $555 million. Most Intel CPUs in servers though are Coppermines in 2.5 million 1 to 2 way servers for 3 million units at an ASP of $150 or a total of $450 million. The total Intel CPUs in servers of about $1.0 billion. Pete