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Technology Stocks : JDS Uniphase (JDSU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Selectric II who wrote (21192)	8/11/2001 12:27:52 AM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 24042

RE: "Where do any of these people get their figures?" For Merrill Lynch, it seems like its from JDSU execs. When JDSU said $450M, ML extended it 3 quarters and then predicted a small rise. When JDSU gave no guidance but said their reorg (layoffs) targeted a break even at $350M, ML started with JDSU beating break-even and moving up from there. We don't have to trust them because they know what we know. We need to figure out if we can trust JDSU management when they signal a revenue bottom. Since the expectation is flat revenues for a few quarters followed by a modest rise, we might have some time. Of course, any sign of improvement might move the price quickly and to overpriced levels. I think we need to examine JDSU's product lines, their revenue performance, and their competitive position (market share). It would be useful to correlate these with industry forecasts and with company forecasts such as CSCO flat to down 5% revenue forecast. I will check Merrill Lynch. There is obvious attraction in a market leader down over 90%. This attraction must be tempered by our knowledge that the top was mania prices and the current situation has the inertia of 1.32 Billion shares.