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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TechTrader42 who wrote (14681)	8/11/2001 10:45:36 AM
From: Lucretius	Respond to of 52237

ROFL... yes, its a good thing all this panjic selling is finally over. i was getting concerned. After all the dow is below 11,000 for goodness sake! LOL

To: TechTrader42 who wrote (14681)	8/11/2001 12:26:09 PM
From: Square_Dealings	Respond to of 52237

Well said. The leading sectors in the current cycle I believe will be healthcare/biotech, water/wastewater utilities and infrastructure companies, energy, aerospace/defense, and commodities/food, energy, metals Baby boomers will be forced to get back to basics and wait until the rest of the world catches up economically. Overall money flow will be negative in the US for the next 6 years imo with specific industries outside of tech taking the majority of the investment dollars. M.

To: TechTrader42 who wrote (14681)	8/11/2001 1:08:02 PM
From: Trading Machine	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 52237

Brookelise, can't disagree with you, but I have heard this same argument before. Most notably with the NAZ run up. I guess my point is that it takes a lot (and I don't know what a lot is) to dissuade some investors from buying. I am one of them. I never look at the P/E of a company or an index. If the trend is right I buy or sell it. So if there are a lot of folks like me out there.....! Now you take DIS, CPQ, and AOL for instance, shux, a P/E of 32 ain't nuttin!ggg Out of the 70 or so stocks that I watch only ONE (F) has a P/E under 10! Three or four years ago it was a sin to have a P/E above 10. But there is a point where it will become so ridiculous/obvious that folks will begin to drop away/sell their positions. This is the only explanation I can come up with. ggg Berney is the all time FA dude and he hammers me with FA stuff. He is correct in what he states, however, for the most part it has little effect, especially in the short term. I have to believe there are a lot of traders that don't have any FA information available to them. You folks that understand it and know it take it for granted that everyone else does also. I suspect that this is no longer true with the influx of new traders and the Internet. BWDIK? Nuttin obviously. gggg BTW, I fall in the newbe category. Also, I try not to be an investor, just a trader, or swing trader that is. If I hold it for more than a week I entered at the Wrong place. ggg Good/Great luck Paul K.

To: TechTrader42 who wrote (14681)	8/11/2001 5:49:47 PM
From: Mark L.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 52237

Yes, the bear market is over. With the S&P 500 trading at 32 times earnings -- vs. a historical average of 14.5 -- it was a kinder, gentler bear market. The historical average 14.5 is the overall average for trailing earnings. During troughs in the business cycle S&P PE's have averaged higher. There are many ways of calculating trailing earnings for a non-current index like the S&P, but the technique I use yields a 29 PE. If you use actually reported "as reported" trailing earnings, the PE is 26. If you use actually reported trailing operating earnings, the PE is 22.5. If you use projected 2001 earnings (which is the metric I suspect you used), then the historically equivalent PE (projected vs trailing) during business troughs would probably be around 20 (hard to get historical data, though).