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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bill Jackson who wrote (50791)	8/12/2001 12:37:10 AM
From: Yousef	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

Bill, Re: " ... SOI is no long shot. In fact it is a sure shot and Intel seems to be the only holdout in the rabks of the major semi fabbers." Don't think so, Bill ... TSMC and UMC have bulk Si as their process at .13um . Don't you consider them major "fabbers" ??<ggg> Make It So, Yousef

To: Bill Jackson who wrote (50791)	8/12/2001 1:02:49 AM
From: wanna_bmw	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

Bill, Re: "SOI is no long shot. In fact it is a sure shot and Intel seems to be the only holdout in the rabks of the major semi fabbers." I wasn't saying SOI is a long shot. Dan had said, "Intel could be finished off as a major player in the semi business by the end of next year." I thought that was a long shot. What does that even mean, anyway? That AMD will gain more than 50% market share? That Intel will go out of business? LOL, Dan is usually cryptic like that so that he can get away with being misleading. But you should know that Intel is not the only holdout in the industry for SOI. Texas Instruments just announced that they will not be using it, either, and for the same reasons as Intel. It might be tempting for you to think that Intel is passing on SOI because they're foolish, or because of poor management, or because they aren't able to use it effectively, or God knows what else is the favored theory of the week. But the truth, as many here have confirmed, is that Intel did extensive testing of SOI, and they felt they could do better without it. That's the short of it, and you can argue until you're blue in the face about what a huge mistake it is, but the fact is that none of the people here, even the process engineers, have gone through the same testing that Intel has. You are all going on the testimonials of IBM and AMD, both of whom have an obvious vested interest in the technology. It's interesting how you can confidently claim to know better than the engineers who have done the actual research. Now, I don't doubt that AMD will get a good advantage over it. They obviously had a good reason to invest in it, so in the spirit of my argument, I see no reason why it won't work out great for them. However, other than giving them an advantage that their own .13u process couldn't, I don't see SOI being any sort of miracle process, and it sure as hell isn't going to enable AMD to bury Intel over the next year. So that's why I told Dan that betting on Intel being "finished off as a major player in the semi business" is a gamble of an investment, being that I consider such an outcome to be a very long shot. wanna_bmw