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Strategies & Market Trends : Pump's daily trading recs, emphasis on short selling -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Michail Shadkin who wrote (5204)	8/12/2001 11:52:33 PM
From: Ed Ajootian	Respond to of 6873

Michail, Saw from the WallSt.com article that you liked eFunds (EFDS). I do too and can't figure out why it is going down after the blowout 2Q earnings report. Something like 90% of their revenue is recurring from quarter-to-quarter. It would seem that they are not getting too hurt from the economic slowdown, at least so far. Any thoughts?

To: Michail Shadkin who wrote (5204)	8/13/2001 12:34:43 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6873

I was pretty close last month so I thought I would try again. This is on Max Pain. As you know it can go wrong for numerous reasons but here are my current thoughts. Posted this in a couple other places but you seemed interested while others think I am totally nuts so here goes.... Note: My eyeball method involves looking at the options chain as opposed to relying solely on this site. iqauto.com Calling for a software rally, especially if wrong, could make me look like a fool. All I am doing is reporting what I see. ------------------------------------------------------ Eyeball method on QQQ suggests we close somewhere between 40 and 42 and if I had to pick I would suggest smack on 41. If we close under 40, it could get very very ugly so I doubt that. Software is hugely oversold and my favorite long play here is SEBL. Stochastics very oversold, downgrades are in, stock well below pain. If forced to guess we could see a rally to 32 1/2. A close under 25 does not seem likely. If for some reason we have a huge rally(which I doubt) then 37 would be my target. If we rally into expiry and keep going then 37 would be my target. ORCL is also 2 1/2 points below pain. Of the two I prefer SEBL by a long shot. CSCO max pain I could not figure out with eyeball method precicely (somewhere between 17.5 and 20 but closer to 17.5). All this suggests to me that they got most stocks where they wanted a bit earlier than ususal. MSFT pain is smack on 65. I do not see much here either way. INTC pain is right on 30, again I would not expect much of a move here either way. AMAT is right on pain so again nothing much is expected. AMAT is also not heavily optioned so bad earnings could send chips tumbling. On that last thought perhaps we have a decent rally for a 1 1/2 days or two so we can drop chips on a bad AMAT report with ease (back to max pain with a tumble next week). Normally I trust my my eyeball method better than IQauto but I wanted to see what the official number was on CSCO (theirs was 17 1/2). I found it interesting that QQQ and SEBL were the most requested requests for max pain analysis today. On a historic basis SEBL is about 10th. AMAT was #5 so people are interested in that when they normally would not be. AMD (cult following) is the most requested of all times and is always hign on the list. Max pain to my eye was about 22.5 on BEAS but is listed at 25. That is as far out of wack as SEBL. On BEAS alone I would not make much of it but if software rallies a bit SEBL BEAS ORCL would be the plays. VRTS max pain by my eyeball is about 40 so I would not expect much on that one. So... If we rally I would expect software to lead the way (but not really MSFT). Top on QQQ would be about 42, but if we blew past that then 44-45 COULD happen with ease. Max pain suggets a mini-rally overall with a bigger rally in software. I believe we head back down after this relief rally (possibly as early as WED AM on bad news from AMAT). M

To: Michail Shadkin who wrote (5204)	8/13/2001 8:03:24 AM
From: Bocor	Respond to of 6873

PRESS RELEASE: StemCells Reports 2Q Earnings >STEM 13 Aug 06:10 StemCells, Inc. Announces Second Quarter 2001 Financial Results BIOWIRE2K PALO ALTO, Calif.--(BW HealthWire)--Aug. 13, 2001--StemCells, Inc. (Nasdaq: STEM) today reported financial results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2001. StemCells's second quarter 2001 pro-forma net income, which excludes stock-based compensation charges, was $2.8 million, or $0.12 per diluted share, compared to a pro-forma net loss of $0.5 million, or $0.03 per diluted share for the second quarter of 2000. Net income per share including stock-based compensation charges was $1.6 million, or $0.07 per diluted share, for the second quarter of 2001, compared to a net loss of 0.5 million, or $0.03 per diluted share (excluding deemed dividends), for the second quarter of 2000. Cash and cash equivalents were $9.4 million at June 30, 2001, compared to $5.5 million at June 30, 2000. The Company reported assignment of rights revenue of $300,000 for the second quarter of 2001, compared to no revenue for the second quarter of 2000. In addition, the Company sold its remaining 103,577 shares of stock in Modex Therapeutics (Modex), a Swiss company, for $5.2 million. In the second quarter of 2000, the stock was considered a restricted investment, since it was subject to a lock-up agreement. "The change in net income per share is primarily due to a realized gain from the sale of our remaining investment in Modex Therapeutics, which the Company announced in May," said Martin McGlynn, President and CEO of StemCells, Inc. "This was offset by an increase in expenses attributable to an increase in personnel, the move to a larger facility, and the effect of compensation cost recognized in the valuation of non-qualified stock options. The sale of Modex shares was part of our strategy to divest ourselves of holdings related to our former Encapsulated Cell Technology." "As announced on May 11, 2001 we are pleased to have secured a $30,000,000 equity line, which the Company may use at its discretion to fund ongoing research and development activities, in our research and development programs, which utilize fetal and adult stem cells."

To: Michail Shadkin who wrote (5204)	8/13/2001 12:03:52 PM
From: 2MAR$	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6873

...

To: Michail Shadkin who wrote (5204)	8/13/2001 9:53:47 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6873

Michail - look at this quicken.excite.com CTL is going to get stiffed for 87M from LWIN and they do not know it yet. Any thoughts on CTL short M

To: Michail Shadkin who wrote (5204)	8/14/2001 12:53:19 PM
From: Steve Fancy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6873

Michail, do you still like LWIN short...any thoughts on this? Thanks! Steve ======================== Money manager Gabelli acquires Leap Wireless stake Reuters, 08/13/2001 16:17 WASHINGTON, Aug 13 (Reuters) - New York money manager Mario Gabelli has acquired a 5.7 percent stake in wireless telephone services firm Leap Wireless Inc. (NASDAQ:LWIN) for investment purposes, according to a regulatory filing on Monday. Gabelli and affiliates hold a total of 1.9 million common shares, he reported in a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The most recent transactions include 36,000 shares purchased on August 9 for between $18.95 and $19.62 apiece. Shares of Leap have fallen more than 48 percent since July 25 when the San Diego, California-based company disclosed in its second quarter earnings report that it needed $120 million in revenues in the fourth quarter to meet requirements under credit agreements with telecommunications equipment vendors. Those vendors included Lucent Technologies Inc. (NYSE:LU) and Nortel Networks Corp. (TSE:NT) (NYSE:NT). Leap shares closed down $2.72, or almost 14 percent, to $16.78 in afternoon trading on Nasdaq. The stock has underperformed the Standard & Poor's 500 Index by about 26 percent since the beginning of the year. Copyright 2001, Reuters News Service