To: Kenneth E. Phillipps who wrote (171236 ) 8/14/2001 12:30:11 PM From: Neocon Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 769670 06 June 2001 State Department/International Information Programs National Academy of Sciences Issues Report on Global Warming Says research needed to reduce uncertainties about climate change The National Academy of Sciences reports that the observed warming of the Earth's atmosphere over the last 50 years is at least in part being caused by greenhouse gas emissions such as carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels. The committee's 24-page report, prepared by 11 top climate scientists, including a Nobel laureate, came in response to a White House request for a review of the state of climate science in preparation for ministerial talks on a climate change treaty to be held in Bonn July 16-27. A June 6 press release on the conclusions of a report by a committee of the academy's National Research Council adds, however, that uncertainties remain about how much natural variation is contributing to global warming. The report says the conclusion of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that global warming is likely the result of increases in greenhouse gases accurately reflects the current thinking of the scientific community.But the report cautions that uncertainties about this conclusion remain because of the level of natural variability inherent in the climate system over decades and centuries, and the questionable ability of computer models to accurately simulate changes in nature over long periods. "We know that greenhouse gases are accumulating in Earth's atmosphere, causing surface temperatures to rise," said committee chair Ralph Cicerone, chancellor at the University of California at Irvine. "We don't know precisely how much of this rise to date is from human activities ..." To reduce some of the uncertainties inherent in current climate change predictions, the committee called for a strong commitment to improving climate models and building a global climate observing system. "More comprehensive measurements of greenhouse gases and increased computational power also will be needed," it said. The proposed international treaty on climate change, known as the Kyoto Protocol, calls on industrialized countries to limit their emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases linked to global warming. President Bush announced last March that the United States was withdrawing support for the protocol, saying that the protocol's binding limits on emissions could harm the U.S. economy. The protocol has been signed by the United States but not ratified. According to reports, the administration is expected to unveil an alternative plan of voluntary emissions targets before his upcoming meeting with European Union leaders in Gothenburg, Sweden. The alternative plan follows a cabinet-level review of U.S. climate change policy. The full text of the report by the National Research Council, entitled "Climate Change Science: An Analysis of Some Key Questions," can be found at the following Web site: nap.edu usinfo.state.gov