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To: eichler who wrote (475)	8/14/2001 11:38:16 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2290

Eichler any comments on this train of thought? Original post from TWICK Isn't this a descending triangle starting in April/May ? members.home.net ================================================================ Your graph actually shows a symmetric triangle, not descending one. Descending triangle is the one with horizontal lower line. If you connect lows around 1934, 1937, you have a horizontal line which is less perfect than the nicely fit upper line, but close. So we have two possible pictures: one is the symmetric triangle you mentioned, the other is the descending triangle I described. Both of them favor downward break-through because symmetric triangle tends to follow the previous trend, and descending triangle favors down. The difference is the implied downward distance. Symmetric one implies much lower (almost 1400!) than the descending one (around 1750). I think the descending triangle is a more valid picture for two reasons: 1. the lower line of symmetric one is drawn with only 2 points. 2. Can we go to 1400? not likely. If I want to venture an opinion, I say we will make a low around 1750, thus complete a double bottom formation (in conjunction with 1619 low). Of course, it could breakout upward, which is very rare for a descending triangle, less so for a symmetric one. In which case, the symmetric triangle predicts one hell of a rally ... Either way, we shall see very soon as we are getting closer and closer toward the apex. ===================================================================== William, a very nice analysis, but I would not exclude 1400 on the Naz, since it is the bottom part of the 1998 decline, and the last 15 months have been "produced" to completely erase the excess from that time to the high in March last year. I still have just a retest of the 1600 area for now, but if we breach 1600 by more than 20 naz points, I think that eventually we could bottom at 1400 as the symmetric triangle would indicate. Zeev

To: eichler who wrote (475)	8/15/2001 12:56:03 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 2290

cboe.com As long as J6P keeps buying equity calls AND as long as P/C ratio stays under about .85 short positions should be OK. At about .80 I will start getting nervous. It still seems we have a ways to fall. VIX VXN and volume along with joe buying calls while the pros take the opposite side buying index puts suggests too much complacency for a strong bounce. Sox the only thing in rally mode at all with everything else in the gutter. Not really very inspiring. Software could not rally even though it is hugely oversold. What happens when SOX breaks? I say when because it will. Only question is the break soon or after another headfake rally up. Now what do I do with those MU puts I bought at the open? MU is very oversold, a point from which it bounces very quick about 98% of the time? If EBAY bounces I will double my short. Bought my EBAY PUTs back for my IRA when it crossed 62 to the upside. M