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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Meridian who wrote (3602)	8/15/2001 10:02:27 AM
From: Second_Titan	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206326

Brent September production expected to dive. UK Sep N Sea Brent crude program set lower at 10.488 mln bbl London, Aug. 15 (BridgeNews) - The September loading program for the U.K.'s North Sea Brent Blend crude oil export system has been set at 10.488 million barrels, down from 12.952 million barrels in August, equity holders said Wednesday.

To: Meridian who wrote (3602)	8/15/2001 12:09:06 PM
From: chowder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206326

Meridian, I can't argue with your logic, wouldn't want to anyway. I'll stipulate that the OSX looks good here for a short term trade, but that's all I'm seeing at this time. Putting tactics and strategies aside, everyone has different objectives, different time frames and different levels of tolerance for risk; assuming we were on the same page, assuming our goals were identical, we would only differ on the method of obtaining those goals. (TA vs FA.) However, a comment you made is what holds me back from taking any long term positions here and why I'll only consider short term trades. You mentioned, >> Buy when things look bad, as long as there's the prospect of superior intermediate term fundamentals. << I don't see that prospect! Let me explain. I believe the OSX has sold off because it is believed that supply outweighed demand, hence inventories have risen more than expected. I believe a weak economy will continue to foster an environment where inventories will continue to stay ahead of demand and I think demand is going to fall off a cliff, so-to-speak. Personal debt has risen to record highs in this country. Mortgage delinquencies and write-offs of by credit card companies are rising. Personal bankruptcies may hit an alltime high this year. I don't see demand picking up in this scenario. Over 1 million people have lost their jobs since January 1st, many of them sent on their way with six month severance packages. As those severance packages start to drop off, I believe you're going to see more and more people cutting back on consuming. This can't help increase the demand for energy. Greenspan has cut interest rates and flooded the market with liquidity in hopes of getting business to increase capital spending. Companies aren't taking the bait. They are cutting jobs and they are cutting capital spending. How is this good for energy demand? Company after company continues to come out with little or no visibility. All they can say is it can't get any worse. I think it can and I think it will. And Stephan Roach of MWD before the Senate Banking Committee had this to say, >> "The other shoe about to fall in the third phase of the global downturn could well be the American consumer. This judgement is not without controversy. But as I see it, the case against the US consumer is more compelling than at any point since the 1970's. Saving short, overly indebted, and wealth depleted, consumers are about to get hit by the twin forces of layoffs and reduced flexible compensation (the year-end payouts granted in the form of stock options, profit sharing, and performance bonuses). Tax rebates notwithstanding, I believe that this confluence of forces will finally crack the denial that has kept the American consumer afloat. In my travels around the world, the wherewithal of the American consumer is at the top of everyone's list. A US-dependent global economy needs the American consumer more than ever. I fear the world is about to be in for a huge disappointment." << I could go on and on about companies losing 70% or more in revenues, about CSCO writing off more in bad debt than Ford has market cap, about the con game companies are playing with regard to pro forma earnings, etc. I think all of the above will affect the ability of the energy sector to grow, certainly this year, and probably next year too. I could be wrong, I don't have all the answers, but neither does anyone else it seems. Even the pro's are dumbfounded from week to week on the performance of this sector and as long as that uncertainty prevails, I only see short term trading opportunities going forward. Thanks for the insights Meridian, I sincerely appreciate it. dabum