Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JRI who wrote (10223)	8/16/2001 8:48:32 PM
From: Berney	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 209892

JRI, the monthly historical averages are interesting. I actually maintained them until last year. In the previous 12 years August was the worst month for the SnP. It actually caught me a bit flat-footed last August. Having given it some thought, one must conclude that the nature of traders that go on vacation in a bear market is different than those that go on vacation in a bull market. This puppy is doomed. Edit - However, I'll ask this question over here as well -- If a company provides no guidance as to 3rd quarter earnings, can they warn? Just a View from the Swamp Berney

To: JRI who wrote (10223)	8/16/2001 8:52:44 PM
From: The Freep	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

JRI -- let's talk about Whoa Nelly for a sec. (Is Nelly related to Katie who barred the door)? What's gonna cause this woeful whoa? Possible causes: reaction to Fed; return of traders; the possibility of Japanese selling in September; the next round of earnings warnings; tax loss selling in late Sept/early Oct. The problem I see is that any of these five elements COULD cause some nastiness. But will all five? There have not been many recent market years that parallel this, so it's possible some of the seasonal effects will be different, yes? It's possible they won't be, too. Maybe enough companies have pre-warned for next quarter that there won't be a spate of warnings to spook the market (disregarding the fact that PEs are out of whack based on the new earnings). Maybe maybe maybe. Now, it's possible ALL these elements will kick in, and the markets will be totally crushed for the next two months. But that seems too easy, too. So how do you see it all playing out? Which of these events is the one to watch for? I have no idea, personally, but think they'll all factor in. Oh, and I TOLD you we wouldn't hit the wedge bottom yet. Nooooo. Too easy if it had just happened. Sigh. the freep