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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Teresa Lo who wrote (15479)	8/17/2001 7:16:40 AM
From: dennis michael patterson	Respond to of 52237

>>We live in interesting times.<< Oh yes we do!

To: Teresa Lo who wrote (15479)	8/17/2001 1:47:49 PM
From: sea_biscuit	Respond to of 52237

I don't understand what you are talking about. When I speak to some tech investors, most of them expect the Nasdaq to go to at least 3000 by end 2002. That is, about 60% higher from current levels. Now, I wouldn't exactly call that bearish!

To: Teresa Lo who wrote (15479)	8/17/2001 3:02:56 PM
From: Dave	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 52237

Teresa, you must talk to different investors, or listen to different analysts, or read different newspapers than I. Market psychology is still very bullish. Everybody is predicting a market bottom "next quarter or the one after that," precisely as they have been for the past few quarters. And it's just not going to happen. You just don't have a year-long Bear with no recession after 18 years of Bull. Every market dislocation results in an equal and opposite dislocation. The major indices are still incredibly overvalued. The Nasdaq 100 is not even profitable, yet sells at a high multiple of REVENUES, and those revenues are declining rapidly. Is that really the kind of market that you see at or near a market bottom? No, it's more what you'd expect just before a crash. Gold is still not far off its 30-year lows, the dollar is still flying high, and the real estate bubble has only begun to be pricked, and even then only in Silicon Valley, where just a few months ago an 1100-sf bungalow on a tiny lot was selling for $1M. The Dow and S&P 500 indices are still within spitting range of all-time highs. They haven't even felt any pain yet. Keep your crash helmet on. Y'ain't seen nuthin' yet. Dave

To: Teresa Lo who wrote (15479)	8/18/2001 12:09:35 PM
From: robert duke	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

We sure do live in interesting times.

To: Teresa Lo who wrote (15479)	8/18/2001 11:17:25 PM
From: Rarebird	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

The continuing rapid deterioration in earnings growth for most high profile tech companies bears watching and should not be taken lightly or rationalized away through psychological analysis. The whole financial media and many of the big brokerages have been telling investors since the Fed began cutting rates in January that an economic recovery will be coming in the second half of the year. Yet there is not a week that goes by that a high tech company doesn't warn of an earnings shortfall with no future guidance as to when business will get better. This may sound simplistic but the stock market trades on future earnings growth. The fabricated second half economic recovery keeps getting put off. The stock market is growing impatient and is beginning to realize that far from there being a second half economic recovery, this economy is likely headed towards a second half recession. Given the loss of confidence in future earnings growth, I expect the selling to continue and intensify as we head into September.

To: Teresa Lo who wrote (15479)	8/19/2001 4:31:10 PM
From: LTK007	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 52237

Teresa,who whose work i greatly admire,i felt for sometime that contrarianism is itself becoming a fad. i am noting too many getting optimistic based on the contrarian principle alone. Contrarian positions MUST also have foundations of real ,however,hidden causes,to be contrarian. i see nothing to support the contrarian position now other than it is EASY and requires no other research.PaxMax BTW--the old idea that when Magazines become bearish,means the bottom is in,is myth,sometimes they are right and sometimes they are wrong, historically,speaking,i.e.