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To: DebtBomb who wrote (11415)	8/17/2001 9:39:50 PM
From: stevenallen	Respond to of 208838

Very interesting piece - For the present, I think the old bump and grind down is our most likely scenario. I expect a bounce up into FOMC and then back down for the next step. Don't get me wrong, I'd love the big blow off capitulation, heavy volume of blood in the streets scenario. I've got lots of dry powder for buying into the panic sell, but my guess is that would be too easy and the MMs wouldn't get their maximum cut. So I guess we'll have to keep paying attention to the short term trends - just scalpin and swingin, taking what the market gives. A nice big bounce Monday would be perfect to reload the shorts...

To: DebtBomb who wrote (11415)	8/18/2001 8:24:45 AM
From: ChrisJP	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 208838

Hi Dale, I'm sure everyone understands the significance of the date of that article is that it was at most written a week or two before the 17 year bull market started in earnest (although some chart readers claim the bull market actually started in 1975). Ummmmmm .... PEs of 5 - 6 !!! Now that is a climate where the public, who got nailed in the 1973-1974 recessions, hated stocks ! Elaine Garzarelli made a compelling argument that we've reached bottom because the PE of the S&P 500 using 2002 projected earnings -- minus technology -- is about 15. Unfortunately, many believe that the earnings consensus for the S&P500 is roughly 20% too high. So I still say even if you think a PE of 15 is ok, too many signs point to another 20% drop in the S&P500 before its over. And of course, the NASDAQ and tech stocks will shoulder the brunt of that drop. I'm gonna wait a few more months for the "new market reality" to sink in before becoming a contrarian. Chris