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To: j g cordes who wrote (33634)	8/18/2001 3:41:37 AM
From: Johnny Canuck	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 68426

Hi Jim, Interesting how that article did not mention the GigE processor companies like MRVL and LNOP. MRVL bought GALT, while LNOP is just making the transition to a pure semiconductor company and will not ship product till December. The difference is that this market is emerging here and now. The GigE standard is still not approved, but as companies looks for faster connectivity at the lowest possible cost GigE seems to be winning. EXTR and FDRY both saw strength in GigE sales, though give the low base it is easy to get large percent growth rates. A growing business in a sector under pressure.

To: j g cordes who wrote (33634)	8/18/2001 3:41:37 AM
From: Johnny Canuck	Respond to of 68426

Interest economic view: thelion.com

To: j g cordes who wrote (33634)	8/18/2001 3:41:37 AM
From: Johnny Canuck	Respond to of 68426

Deleted!

To: j g cordes who wrote (33634)	8/18/2001 4:01:31 AM
From: Johnny Canuck	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 68426

Things that make you go hmmm! :) Interesting point, if most businesses upgraded there computers in preparation for the Y2K problems and most computers are obsolete after 3 to 4 years (also assumes the assets is totally depreciated at this point), then most companies will not need to upgrade till 2002 or 2003. Given that 50 percent of electronics produced go into computers, we may not seem a significant recovery in the semiconductor and computer sector till then. Telecom looks like it has gone back to the traditional 12 to 15 percent growth rates. Deregulation is allowing the telcos to depreciates the newly installed equipment faster, but the incentive to install faster and newer equipment in light of uncertain demand will cap capital spending till the next killer app comes along. The son of my broker said that electronics games are pretty passé in his crowd. Most kid are not all that enthusisatic about the prospects of the new platforms. It looks like they are more into the doing the extreme sports rather than watching it. The extra cellphone services are also out. Most can not afford the extra cost. They seem to want the newest phones, but not the new services. Hand held systems are in and being connected to the internet over the handhelds. This sort of contradicts the earlier statement though as they do not want to pay for it. Anyone else seeing the same thing with their teenagers. Market bottom are typically not seen in bear markets till consumer debts starts to fall. In the current environment the Fed is lowering rate in order to encourage consumer spending (ie ... debt), but in reality he is just delaying a more serious crash that will come when the consumers can no longer carry the debt in a contracting economy.

To: j g cordes who wrote (33634)	8/18/2001 10:56:52 AM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 68426

The list of oversold semiconductors grew again. Surprisingly it only grew by three stocks to 57 stocks. Here they are listed below: ABTG AEHR ALAO ALSC AMAT AMCC AMKR APTI ASYS ASYT ATMI AVNX AXTI BRKS CAMD CMOS CRUS CY CYMI DPAC DPMI DYSL EMA FLEX FSII GSPN IBIS IDTI IFX JNIC KLIC KYO LPTH LTXX MTLK MTSN MU NUFO NVLS OCPI OVTI PLXT PRTH SEMI SLAB SMTC SYMM SYXI TENS TER TMTA UTEK VIRL VRTA VTSS finance.yahoo.com Note that this is 57 out of the 197 semiconductors that Silicon Investor has listed with an RSI of 20 or lower. I have not been keeping these numbers long enough to give them a truly meaningful interpretation. However the last time the SOX sold off like it is now we got all the way up to 99 semiconductor stocks in this category before the SOX hit bottom and started back higher. Also of interest is that Silicon Investor has somewhat inexplicably shortened its semiconductor listings by 4 stocks. I no longer see JBL for instance. This stock obviously is in the oversold category. That is not to say JBL or any of these stocks above will not get more oversold. I think they will as a group get more oversold early next week. Another 20 point loss on the SOX could set us up for a rally. The danger of course is that we will be operating in something of vacuum once earnings season ends and we await next quarter's warning season. This is one reason why so many are convinced that the NASDAQ will retest April's lows. I say lets wait to see if the SOX holds near 530 before we make that assumption. RtS RtS