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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: JD_Canuck who wrote (77681)8/18/2001 1:25:03 AM
From: Bilow  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 93625
 
Hi JD_Canuck; Re: "Perhaps the increase in DDR % will be due to them stealing market share from others presently shutting down their manufacture of the cheaper grades of DDR."

Correct!

That's why you have to look at the totality of the information coming out of industry to really have a feeling for what's going on. As with most things in life, you have freedom to believe pretty much whatever you want to believe.

But the totality of the evidence is that DDR is ramping up while RDRAM is ramping up, and that's industry wide. Now you don't have numbers as precise as the Samsung figures for most of the other players, but all the needles are pointing in the same direction. The major DRAM makers are Samsung, Toshiba, Micron, Elpida, Hynix and Infineon. We've heard from Samsung in the figures you refer to.

Toshiba
Toshiba said last week it would cut its DRAM chipmaking capacity by one-quarter by the end of September, to the equivalent of 20 million 64-megabyte (MB) chips per month. The cuts include halving monthly output of high-speed Rambus DRAM chips to eight million a month, on a 64-MB basis, due to unexpectedly sluggish market penetration of the chips, which are used with Intel Corp's Pentium 4 processor. #reply-16223069 Also "The demand for Rambus parts is still relatively limited. The P4 is still very expensive and has yet to penetrate the market. Demand is below our expectations," said the spokesman. #reply-16209905

Micron
Steve Appleton, chairman and chief executive officer of Micron Technology Inc. (Boise, Idaho), expressed satisfaction with Micron's decision not to enter the commercial RDRAM market. "Micron has always been driven by what is most cost-effective for the customer," he said. "The cost-effectiveness of the Rambus solution was never there." #reply-16209905

Elpida (I.e. NEC / Hitachi)
Elpida Memory Inc. expects DDR SDRAM to run about even with Direct RDRAM unit shipments by the end of the year-each representing about 15% of the company's total DRAM sales. Mike Despotes, president of Elpida Memory (USA) Inc., San Jose, said that based on preliminary orders from customers, the DDR ramp will pick up markedly in the second half. In the first quarter of next year, he expects DDR to exceed sales of Direct RDRAM, adding that in the second half of 2002, DDR could even exceed sales of PC133 SDRAM. Since Elpida makes both DDR and RDRAM, it is considered by some to be a more neutral forecaster than memory makers that have sided with one architecture or the other, said Sherry Garber, an analyst at Semico Research Corp., Phoenix. #reply-16146763 Also, NEC, the RDRAM half of Elpida, is getting out of DRAM completely. See #reply-16152049 for the details.

Hynix
The U.S.-based subsidiary of Hynix Semiconductor Inc. claimed the Korean company shipped 1.7 million double data rate (DDR) synchronous DRAMs with 128-megabit chip densities in July. According to Hynix, the shipments accounted for 45% of the global DDR memory market in July. DDR synchronous DRAMs now typically have a price tag that's 20% higher than existing SDRAMs with the same densities, according to Hynix, which was previously called Hyundai Electronics Industries. The Ichon, Korea-based company predicted that its DDR shipments will exceed 3 million units in August. Hynix is an advocate of DDR as the next-generation wideband memory format for computers vs. the competing Rambus Inc. architecture. The Korean memory merchant claims that Rambus DRAMs have only found acceptance in high-end computer applications, based on Intel Corp.'s P4 processor and associated chip sets. #reply-16194844 Also see: Hynix claims that "this strategic shift in Intel's position will propel DDR SDRAM into mainstream system memory applications. #reply-16199801

Infineon
BWAHAHAHAHA!!! Well, you don't see Infineon in any rush to negotiate with Rambus for an extension on their RDRAM license, do you? It would be funny if Infineon is suddenly pumping out so much RDRAM that it's depressing prices and chasing the other producers out of the market. But the truth is that I can't find any Infineon rumors or information about what they're doing.

The world is set up so that you will never, ever, ever get perfect information until long after it is too late to make an investment decision based on it. It's your decision, you'll have to make your call in the world of imperfect information that we all live in. The only real, precise, production information you have is the August 8 figures from Samsung. You've got Steve Lee claiming that the 10%~17% figures for DDR are actually 17%~20%. Are those the real number? Are the extendable to the whole industry? Is the big P4 ramp going to be with DDR or RDRAM?

On the other hand, wouldn't it make you feel good to put all your money into RMBS on margin at these low prices, make yourself exceedingly wealthy, and then be able to tell Bilow to go hang? How can you lose, the P4 is ramping up? And you know Bilow never gets his predictions right. BWAHAHAHAHAHA!!! It's your choice, choose well.

-- Carl