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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tom Gordon who wrote (261)	8/18/2001 10:23:42 AM
From: Mark Ivan	Respond to of 306849

Tom, Point taken. You may be right. I think we have a 1/3 change of turning the corner here and heading back to good times with the economy. We have a 1/3 change of just staying stagnant like we are now. And we have a 1/3 chance of your scenario, a total meltdown. Thus we have a 2/3 chance of not seeing your scenario and only a 1/3 chance of seeing it. I'll stick with the odds. Gee, that almost made sense even to me (VBG) Gold seems to have bottomed out and on the rise. But if you look at mid 1998 to mid 1999, you may have made the same conclusion and missed a huge run-up in the market. quote.yahoo.com^XAU&d=c&k=c1&a=v&p=s&t=5y&l=on&z=m&q=l Mark

To: Tom Gordon who wrote (261)	8/18/2001 10:55:29 AM
From: Ramsey Su	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

Tom, would appreciate knowing where you got the $500B bad loan number from. Just also want to suggest that in the real estate lending arena, bad loan does not equal total loss. During the S&L fiasco of the early 1990s, the collapse of that entire industry ultimately cost taxpayers around $500B (if I remember correctly). Furthermore, the industry has wised up and much of the loan portfolios these days had been passed through as mortgage backed securities to the suckers (ma and pa investors who believe they are the safest investments). I am in total agreement that real estate is a cyclical business and we are heading for the down cycle. I am just suggesting that the weakest links may not be where we expect. Ramsey

To: Tom Gordon who wrote (261)	8/20/2001 10:45:01 AM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 306849

anecdotal evidence from west Boston residential market: I lived in that area for 20 yrs, and plan to return got several friends involved in the real estate business commercial RE agent, residential RE broker, commercial owner, and several friends with watchful eyes talked yesterday with a friend due west of Boston they live near the outer loop I-495 she has a neighbor who is having difficulty selling their house it is a typical large 4-bedroom with garage on 3/4 acre it is quaint, built around turn of century, very nice Boston has newer and quaint older all over the place this property has been on the market for over a month the family must sell, and head to NY state for new job they lowered the price, and still little or no foot traffic selling price was $430k, now $405k, soon less she tells me that dozens of other houses are up for sale some need to move, some want to capture this peak before prices come down she reports that many houses have come down in asking price but little or no foot traffic she knows personally about 4-5 families in town who must sell but her neighbor provides the day-to-day blow-by-blow account these little towns outside Boston are unique they are tightly knit, schools and kids knit them tightly houses are NOT selling they say it is like a brick wall was hit when the summer began I told her about EMC laying off a thousand this summer they are located west south west of Boston I told her to expect more pain when EMC announces second layoff rounds they warned of this in recent public statement if sales dont pick up they are not picking up I have a friend in EMC now who confirms this her nearby entire marketing department was dismantled commercial Boston hit the skids in late spring this woman's husband works for commercial RE agency he told me between Nov2k and May01, office rental prices dropped 40% per sqft and building rentals were at a standstill the commercial owner talked with me about personal experiences he has more office vacancies than ever before, not happy in 1998-99 small tech firms filled all his office units now a few of them have actually gone out of business he has 80% occupancy and is feeling the strain the residential broker talked to me about in July she said back then that prices were still firm, houses were moving but not as quickly as before she expected that if time on market continued to lengthen, we would see prices coming down must speak with her again soon I conclude in Boston, residential began to roll over in summertime next comes the price declines showing up in final sales figures the heavily service oriented (green) economy in Boston has avoided much of what has descended upon SanFrancisco but cracks are widening in the important financial services I think Fidelity holds the key in this area for Boston fwiw, Jim