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To: Zardoz who wrote (75242)	8/20/2001 9:45:17 AM
From: Rarebird	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116752

September Fed Funds indicate that market participants are now factoring in a 100% chance for another 25 basis point cut.

To: Zardoz who wrote (75242)	8/27/2001 7:29:16 PM
From: Rarebird	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 116752

Why the Tech Stocks have been selling off and what to do as the selling intensifies this Fall: Things are getting more interesting these days in the market. Lately, we have witnessed broad, unabated selling. However, the selling has neither been frantic nor emotionally driven. Instead, the recent selling appears far more orderly than it has been historically. This is a clear indication that the impetus behind the selling is the result of changing expectations rather than swings in sentiment. The selling we have been witnessing lately is most likely due to the market starting to discount the fact that an economic slowdown may last longer than previously anticipated. This means earnings will not pick up as quickly as was once believed. But if earnings growth continues to stall, the P/E multiple should fall as well. There are two ways a P/E multiple can go lower. Either prices fall or earnings rise. That is effectively the dilemma the market is currently in. If earnings do not rise, if growth does not re-accelerate, prices will continue to fall until the market's P/E multiple reverts to its historical level. The key to prospering in the market(and in Life) is to not follow the crowd. When everyone and their brother is buying tech stocks, it usually is a good idea to short the sector. Similarly, when the market is collectively selling, it usually is a good idea to be buying. I think the NAZ is going lower over the short term, but I continue to think that the NAZ remains the best place for an investor to earn returns over the long haul. While it may take until the third or fourth quarters of 2002 for earnings to recover, the general trend over time is for companies to increase their earnings. This trend will continue, regardless if the current recession proves to be longer than anticipated. For this reason, it makes sense to me to buy on weakness in early October, or risk missing any broad recovery rally. It's certainly a euphoric feeling to make a great short term trade. But just ask any baby boomer how he or she accumulated wealth over time and you will hear that they bought low when very few wanted to buy and held on. Such an opportunity is coming in early October.

To: Zardoz who wrote (75242)	9/6/2001 11:56:10 AM
From: IngotWeTrust	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116752

Hutch sez to ak ak on 8/18: Hey Dung, stop snorting gold dust. It would appear from the following cryptic PM found in my inbox just this very minute that "loveable" Hutch will NOT be privately AND publically blasting away at GPM'ers, NOR privately providing pre-endorsed cue cards for the irrascible Dr. BigBird himself. While I will not miss his jabs and barbs and derisive personal attacks, I don't wish anyone poor health, even the permagoldbear, Hutch. Since Brad is obviously catching emails for Leonard (aka "Hutch"), those who may wish to send Hutch get well greetings can be assured they will get through to at least the immediate family members. OPEN QUOTE: [yes, this is the entire email] I'm Hutch's brother, Brad. I'm sure that if and when Leonard gets out of hospital he'll be happy to reply to you. But I would not expect that any time soon. CLOSE QUOTE Salute' gold_tutor