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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold and Silver Mining Stocks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TheBusDriver who wrote (1874)	8/19/2001 11:28:52 AM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4051

IMO we are already in a severe worldwide recession. The US consumer will fall off a cliff and that will seal it. Next week will be interesting, as I think the Fed is going to throw everything but the kitchen sink at this (at least 50 basis points). We may finally get a big false stock market rally out of it? The next month or two may be the wildest period in financial markets even in the memories of "old farts" like you and I. Could a commodity rally assisted by a weak USD, and off of severely depressed levels finally be in the works? As you know I've focused mostly on gold/silver. Although PM demand for uses like jewelry is somewhat affected by depressionary conditions, it's a different animal because of gold's use as a credit creation instrument in speculative and derivative activities (I've posted numerous times in the last year about this) that is going to be unwound. I've put a little money into a pure base metal (PLY) and some more in combination plays (gold, PGM or base metals): FWR, GEO, SLR, SWG, and I have one pure PGE play: ARQ. My logic is that the depression in commodities is well known and largely discounted into prices. We could get a rally from 1. inflationary outburst. 2 supply and production falloffs 3. a counter trend bounce (the best, often brief rallies of all can occur in depressionary bear markets). Juniors also have the added benefit of inefficient pricing, the standard gold call (unlike many hedged seniors), the "discovery call" and the takeover windfall call. IMO discovery, takeover and gold call premiums on most of my juniors are zero. I feel I've assembled a decent group of advanced and advancing exploration juniors that give exposure to all those calls. "Fat tail" gold in the ground advanced junior plays, typically top quintile deposits, with expansion potential: BAY, CBD, ELD, FGX, GLDR, GBG, MNP, MFL, MOY, NSU. Less advanced with active primary gold discovery potential: YMC (Cukadere), BGI (Dunkwa and eventually Bui), FWR (Clarence Stream), IMR (Rio Tabaconas and Margote), NPG (Limousine Butte), TNX (Luhala, Itetemia), Tenke (Vicuna). Small or mid tier producers: TVX, GEO (also PGM), IMG Pure PGM: ARQ, I picked up a very small position in PFN at 67, and may get more if PGM's can pop or stabilize. Pure base metal: PLY Combination: SLR, SWG I'm using my four bagger in MR as a source of funds. FN bought initially at 15 is being sold as well. Watch list to try and pick up in the inefficient market vacuum on positive "free look" developments: besides those listed above: IP, CLH, XCL, NGT, RMX, WRM, RDU, ARP.