Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Stocks Crossing The 13 Week Moving Average <$10.01 -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: James Strauss who wrote (9435)	8/19/2001 2:31:23 PM
From: Sergio H	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13094

Jim, either way, 1/4 or 1/2, we're going to see a short term rally. Just short term because the downtrend can't improve until there is a sign that earnings will improve. When will earnings improve? I've done my part. I spent my tax refund check as quickly as I could. It wasn't too difficult, and probably the majority of people will do likewise. But is it enough to offset the effects of econonomic slowdown? Ed Yardeni points out that we're not getting a true reading from the unemployment numbers and why the effects of the economic slowdown haven't fully impacted: www.yardeni.com <Debbie Johnson and I observed that the 12-month sum of layoff announcements, as compiled monthly by Challenger, rose to 1.3 million in July, the highest reading since 1992. Many of the job losers are skilled and knowledgeable employees with relatively high-paying jobs. They are probably receiving some severance pay. This might explain why unemployment insurance claims have remained surprisingly subdued. In the Old Economy, laid-off workers went back to work for the same company in the same job once business improved. In the New Economy, layoffs are permanent, so companies are delaying cutting payrolls as long as they can. This is one reason why the profits and tech/ capital spending recessions are so severe. But if profits don't improve soon, layoffs could mount at a faster clip, wage gains could be diminished, and yearend bonuses might be very disappointing.> Something else to think about. A little early perhaps, but still worth consideration. Most porfolios have some heavy paper losses this year. We're going to see some heavy tax related selling in the next few months resulting in more pressure on the Naz and the tech sector. NAZ is likely to fill gap at around 1500 before short term rally on rate cut. 66.59.141.65 Speaking of gaps, I was looking over KM as a short term play. Retailers are benefitting from tax checks. KM reports Tues. But I am chickening out. Looks like a good candidate for a gap fill too and a better short than long. Sergio edit...Jim, I noticed that you posted similar sentiment to Yardeni's in your post to William.