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Technology Stocks : Oracle Corporation (ORCL) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Joe Waynick who wrote (16061)	8/20/2001 3:33:46 PM
From: MeDroogies	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 19080

The rest of the investment community sees a slowdown in capital expenditures and tech spending. There's the assumption that ORCL can't maintain previous rates of increase in the areas which you point to. And with good reason. I don't doubt that some of these areas will have reductions in their rate of increase. Some areas, such as margins, are likely to decrease. This is considered a "bad thing". However, my feeling is the LE has set ORCL up very nicely for just this turn of events. While there is likely to be slowdowns and reductions, ORCL has positioned itself to take advantage of just this type of market. Ultimately, a stock is priced on its ability to turn a profit. All other factors play important roles in helping a company achieve that goal, but in the end...it is the profit that matters. While I'd prefer to see ORCL earn $1 a share with a 50% margin (just making numbers up here....), I don't have a problem with them earning $1.05 per share with a 25% margin, especially if their competitors begin to show losses or even bigger problems. ORCL did the bulk of their cost cutting BEFORE the markets turned sour, and they have continued their aggressive stance in the difficult environment. I consider these things positives. There are many who don't...and there are people who will, and are welcome to, take shots at my simplified view of the overall situation.

To: Joe Waynick who wrote (16061)	8/20/2001 7:38:40 PM
From: X Y Zebra	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19080

Regardless of how "unfair" or "undervalued" you believe a specific stock may be priced at during a specific period of time, it is the market the final arbiter of "value". Like you, I believe that the determination of value by Mr. Market is most relevant at the time of your entry point. This will make of brake a trade or investment. Beyond the analysis that you have already performed, there may be a few details that can assist you in determining your final timing as to when to push the "buy" button. Start with the "insiders". They, in my opinion, are the ones who know the company best. insiderscores.com Next... See what is their "record" (either a buy or sell), after they did what they did. insiderscores.com This guy seems to be a good "trader". 6 times out of 9 sells, the stock was lower, for an average return 0.48% (after 3 months) and 25.84 % (after 6 months). Based on L/T, I do not have a problem with ORCL. Under the current market, who knows, and saying that ORCL will or will not hit $13, or $12, or even $8.00 has nothing to do with the potential value of the company... under a bear market, or worse, during a panic sell-off in a bear market... all bets are off. So, what is the best strategy ? That I do not know, because it really depends on one's ability to stand calm in the face of a bear market eating away at your equity. Perhaps a combination of outright purchases, spread over a period of time, combined with the use of selling LEAP put options, as far as possible... ( i.e Jan. 2004) However, this assumes that ORCL WILL be in operation at the time exercising such option. I am not saying that it won't be, simply making a point about the risk involved. I mention the use of LEAPS, since it seems (given the current valuation and its downside risk, combined with the premium received as a LEAP seller) that the risk/reward may be on the side of the longs. LEAP options carry a risk and while you get paid a premium, (as a seller), the risk needs to be evaluated carefully, I am sure you are familiar with both the risk and return of options, so thread lightly using them. They can be useful, particularly in combination with a diversified and well thought out strategy, this you seem to know already... Just my opinion. For the record I am long ORCL.