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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (300)	8/23/2001 3:30:40 PM
From: HammerHead	Respond to of 306849

i know, that's what i mean. looking for short opportunities in the real estate fund, i have no short position yet. i don't think RE can hold, imho...

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (300)	8/23/2001 4:12:36 PM
From: Tom Gordon	Respond to of 306849

Ramsey et al, I too am looking for short opportunities in this sector, the problem of timing is this so called backlog these builders have. If times in fact get really tough by fall, you'll see an inordinate amount of reneging on commitments by consumers and thus will signal the end of this uptrend in housing. This will take time, but as layoffs exacerbate the situation,my time line for a collapse is late fall early 2002. Add in the fact that the fed is just about done tightening, it will add fuel to the fire. You just can't do what the Japs did with their economy in lowering rates. Regards, Tom

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (300)	8/24/2001 9:08:56 AM
From: J.E.Currie	Respond to of 306849

Greeting, Beeen following this interesting thread for some time. As of yet I form no conclusion about a collapse in RE, however I believe there to be pockets (areas that withstand wild fluctuations of value because of a proper mix of gov/industry) and it would seem here in Orl we have one. Message 16233985

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (300)	8/25/2001 7:50:08 AM
From: Maurice Winn	Respond to of 306849

<I am looking for short opportunities in the real estate sector because even if real estate does not tank, what is the upside from here? > Short Home Depot. Market Capitalisation of $116 billion and P:E of 45 is much too much. At $1 earnings per share, it will take 45 years to get the investment back without allowing for the time value of money. Even with some earnings growth, there isn't a realistic prospect of getting rich at $50 per share for Home Depot, but there is great prospect for getting poor. So, short circuit the getting poor and short the stock. Cover the short at $12. Please send 10% of the profits to me. Mqurice