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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: DlphcOracl who wrote (54583)	8/23/2001 7:13:53 PM
From: James C. Mc Gowan	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 57584

Delphic: interesting scenario; I too expect an attempt to push, shove or drag COMPX up btw 100 and 150 points from here btw now and end of month, and the hype we are getting now will add the fuel; much more shameless hyping to follow. However, I will be playing for a much larger pump job to come. Consider that your profit from the COMPX low of 1600 +/- in early April, to the peak of the SEVEN WEEK rally at 2300 +/- was a neat 30%, more if leveraged. Now, suppose we get down, with tax loss selling in Telecom/Technology in September to reach 1750 or even the old lows at 1600, then wade through the warnings and poor earnings/limited or no visability of early October. Then, we get the hype machine in high gear, with the hope that the 'recovery' for tech will occur beginning 1st or 2nd quarter 2002. And we get a big rally, fueled by short covering of great magnitude, and house hype to the max. Maybe even a little Fed notes with hopefulness thrown in (Al wants the market up now,ggg). We already went thru this same scenario after the April lows, it lasted 7 weeks, for 30%. Whether we get to the lows of 1600 or just 1700-1750 really doesn't matter. The target is at least 30% for this "light at the end of the tunnel" pump job. I will be positioned for this with appropriate stops; have already started a hedge with mutual funds for this play, and will go long on the Qubes, as well. Since I don't know when the intermediate term "bottom" will be allowed, I'm looking to position on the way down, toward this contrived "double bottom" event, should we hit 1600 again, or the beloved 'higher low' at 1750 +/-, even better for us 'technically oriented' investors, right,ggg. Sorry to go on, but I see great opportuntities for a rally, even though my view of the fundamentals is that we have lots more bear market to come, after the end of year profit grab. Good luck James