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To: craig crawford who wrote (130481)	8/23/2001 9:59:56 PM
From: Victor Lazlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

Craig you make strong case here, I've never seen this roster from you before. The ones i ommitted i have no thoughts on. <<a whole host of things have lined up for a bull market in commodities in the coming years however. 2) historic low valuations for commodities no change coming there.... 4) a couple decades of disinflation and some deflation (no one can even imagine inflation ever coming back) co's are laying off workers rather than try to raise prices on shrinking sales, since their sales would shrink even faster if they even dreamed of raising prices.... the only workers who will get raises in the next two yrs will be union people.... wage inflation is over, gone, and this was the only remaining possible catalyst for the resurection of the inflation zombie.... and until last October, it was really starting to make me think about inflation too. 5) money fleeing stocks so those who lost money in stocks are going to try to make it back by bidding up commodities contracts? who does that? 6) excessive money supply commodities offer no remedy to that, even if it is real and to be remedied. 7) unprecedented easings see #6 8) low inventory levels historically for many commodities could well come into play. 9) bearish sentiment and panic selling of what? 10) capitalism spreading around the globe (especially in china, india, etc) not new in india, has had huge middle class for a while; china has all the oil they need since they've been hoarding it for a while now, looks like they are consuming lots of fiber, though. 11) japan looking like worst possible scenario demand wise yup 12) 100 million added to population every year yup, but mostly in poor non-consuming nations, US approaching 0 pop growth. 13) environmental regulations and red tape growing more pervasive all the time slowing; serious anti-green backlash 15) huge discrepancies in distribution of wealth nothing new there 16) mild weather conditions see 15 17) growing risk of trade wars, tariffs, embargoes no 18) consolidation and producers exiting the business due to no profits, no-win comodities businesses 19) the effects of the push toward recycling over the last several years priced in some commods are very sensitive to existing 'float' in circulation, e.g., gold and silver... lots of float there... 20) more and more activist groups and laws passed to stop unfair child and slave labor conditions long overdue.....

To: craig crawford who wrote (130481)	8/24/2001 2:21:50 AM
From: GST	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 164684

Hi Craig: I am in Japan, The sentiment in Asia is remarkable for is strong negative tone -- words like "coming depression" are being used. I think that the massive reflation of the Japanese economy, and a desire to reflate the US economy, combined, will have an impact on all prices -- including commodities. There is now "easing" -- I am not talking about "easing". I am talking about massive liquidity to get these tankers off the rocks before they break up and pollute the world economy. That is almost certainly going to affect commodity prices -- I would focus on those that are the most positional -- gold comes to mind. Of course the commodity of choice might turn out to be the most man-made -- stock certificates. Good luck.