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To: uu who wrote (24058)	8/24/2001 1:29:18 AM
From: sea_biscuit	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25814

Addi, The unwinding of this bubble is not a straight-down process. It is so volatile that I wouldn't rule out a 20% up move during any part of the ongoing decline. What I am focusing on is that over the longer term, the returns will be poor. The only way that we can possibly make any gains is to trade these short-term (and because we cannot call each move accurately, we are likely to lose money anyway, making for a very frustrating market). And it is precisely because of this reason -- that people are anxious to make their short-term gains real -- that these stocks will go nowhere for a very long time. That has been my point all along. John Chambers also talked recently about 30% earnings gains over the next 5 years or something like that. Considering the size of the company, that one is almost surely going to fall flat on the face. Let's see if at least his current pronouncement is of any substance. I would like to wait until the end of October to see how well these comments age.

To: uu who wrote (24058)	8/24/2001 1:00:24 PM
From: sea_biscuit	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25814

Addi, with your permission, may I use this post of yours as an example to illustrate how investors get carried away during bear-market rallies? I expect to use it sometime later this year.

To: uu who wrote (24058)	8/24/2001 2:42:44 PM
From: sea_biscuit	Respond to of 25814

...with a tremendous amount of cash sitting out there... Where do you get your numbers from? I get mine from ICI, and the money market assets have gone up from 1.96B in mid-Jan to about 2.13B now. That's a rise of about 9%, and maybe nearly a third of that was because of the interest generated during the period. Obviously the money is meant to be there and only there. It largely stayed put even as the April lows were being made. Why do you simply assume that it will flow into the stock market? Because some talking head on CNBC or some newsletter "guru" says so? Or simply because it suits your perma-bullish viewpoint? If you want to look at cash levels, look at the various mutual funds. Their cash levels are near historic lows -- about 5%. Come back when it crosses double digits and I'll then agree with you that there is a lot of money on the sidelines.