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Strategies & Market Trends : Trade/Invest with Options Jerry a Point & Figure Chartist -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jerry Olson who wrote (3274)	8/24/2001 8:05:34 AM
From: Jerry Olson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5893

HERE'S MY SUNDAY NITE NEWSLETTER FOR DA TROOPS JERRY OLSON'S "POINT" OF VIEW NEWSLETTER DATED AUGUST 19TH 2001 Hello Alan Greenspan, and Hi to all the subscribers on this glorious Sunday evening...Hope this letter finds you and yours in the best of health and spirits... Well as i said on Tues of last week "sell all longs", i did just that, stayed in cash to watch the expected close of the Friday cycle lows, and now we await the FOMC on Tues the 21st...They will cut rates again by .25 basis points, and continue to be vigilant and opt on the side of easing for the forseeable future...This event along with the winding down of an earnings season we talked and wrote about awhile ago as being the worst in 10 years...Well, maybe not??? Maybe it's next quarter huh??? Everything from my point of view is falling right into place for us...We are not INVESTING just yet, we can toe dip if you wish, as i will for an expected near term rally...and then? folks?..the best short of all will occurr at heavy R's on this next runnup that we can get into then...Right here??? i am looking for another feeble techincal bounce we can and will play long...I am also getting ready to present a Game Plan for the fall Macro Cycle lows coming up here, for all of us to use over the next 2-3 years.. I fully expect this next buying opportunity to be one of THE best times ever to INVEST serious money into the beaten up, downtroden stocks we know and love...Not saying we dive in with everything we have..but a solid game plan of accumulating stocks at bargain basement prices as others PUKE their shares out in disgust...When the street throws up their hands, we will BUY BUY BUY....This is for the long haul folks..and i'll be investing my own cash reserves right along with you...anyway when wE come to that bridge we'll cross it...Right now??? lets trade whats in front of our faces.... Everything looks very bleak here, the street is continuing to downgrade and reassess every stock in their universe to lower and lower levels sighting lowered expectaions both for the corp's that do the business, but the weakening economic picture as well...We are certainly in a real recession, albeit with super low interest rates that are falling every single month...inflation is not an issue for now...and won't be for a long while...I can see a negative Gross Domestic Product(GDP) coming in next report that will rattle the market BIG TIME...The Global Economies are also slowing too..Not a pretty picture right???..Well if we play our cards right i am thinking the OCT/NOV/DEC time frame will be the right time frame to buy our stocks, calls and LEAP calls for the future turn around on down the road...We must have patience here...I do not want to guess...but i have a plan...and will talk about it as we move nimbly thru this morass... Let's Talk about the technical picture of all the indexs we follow to see whats going on here... DOW--DJIA----"AT THE BRINK"..WELL ALMOST...10,100 IS A SPREAD TRIPLE BOTTOM BREAKDOWN, AND WOULD TAKE IT TO NEXT SUPPORT AT 9950 FIRST...10,350 IS A 3 BOX REVERSAL BACK UP, AND "IF" WE CAN PRINT THAT NEXT WEEK, I THINK WE'LL SEE A RUN TOWARD 10,600-650, BUT WE HAVE TO TAKE OUT 10,450 FIRST...THERE IS VERY HEAVY R AT THE BRL LINE AT 10650...THE 200 EMA DAILY CANDLE NUMBER IS AROUND 10,600..THAT ALONG WITH THE BRL AT 10,650 SHOULD STOP THIS POTENTIAL RALLY COLD...LIKE IN "DEAD"...A GOOD SHORTING AREA "IF" WE CAN GET THERE..PLEASE SET ALL ALERTS FOR ALL INDEXS AND STOCKS..AT EACH LEVEL... NAZ--COMPX---WEAKER THAN OLD BONES<G>...AWFUL LOOKING CHART...THE OTC STOCKS ARE STILL IN TROUBLE RIGHT HERE..BUT THE NYSE IS DOING BETTER..MUCH BETTER...IT BROKE A TRIPLE BOTTOM AT 1900 AS PREDICTED..I HAD A DOWNSIDE TARGET OF 1800...THE 3 BOX REVERSAL BACK UP IS 2050...2100 IS STILL THE UPSIDE TARGET..DOUBT WE EVEN GET CLOSE TO THE BIG DOUBLE TOP AT 2300... NDX---THIS INDEX IS IN A PICTURE PERFECT DOWNWARD CHANNEL...IT'S GIVEN 3 CONSECUTIVE SELL SIGNALS RIGHT TO THIS PRICE...IT HAS "NOT" BROKEN THE BRL LINE ALL YEAR..COMPRENDE?..ALL YEAR!!!!..SO WATCH THIS AS A PROXIE FOR THE QQQ'S.. AND TRADE ACCORDINGLY...1700 THE 3 BOX REVERSAL BACK UP, BUT IT'S A VERY WEAK INDEX...EVENTUALLY IT WILL TOUCH THE APRIL LOWS AT 1350...BET ON IT... QQQ'S---BROKE A TRIPLE BOTTOM LAST WEEK AS IT PRINTED BELOW 39..IT TOO WILL VISIT THE APRIL LOWS..BUT NOT RIGHT HERE, AND NOT RIGHT NOW...DID I SAY THIS BEFORE<g>?????41 THE 3 BOX REVERSAL UP 43/44 THE GOOD SHORTING AREA... SPX---UH OHH..IT BROKE DOWN LAST WEEK AS IT FELL THRU THE 1160 STOP...IT WAS A TRIPLE BOTTOM BREAKDOWN...WE HAVE APRIL LOWS AT 1090..WON'T SEE THAT RIGHT HERE..BUT A NUMBER TO THINK ABOUT GOING FORWARD...1190 THE 3 BOX REVERSAL UP, AND MAYBE WE GET A TEST OF 1220 FOR THE THIRD TIME...LOOKS LIKE A SOLID SHORT THERE....I THINK YOU CAN BEGIN TO VISULIZE THESE TARGETS AS THEY APPROACH MY NUMBERS AS THE AREA TO GET SHORT HARD & HEAVY...I WILL BE CALLING THAT SHORT MYSELF... SOX---WELL WELL WELL..IT'S STILL FIGHTING FOR IT'S VERY LIFE....DID NOT TEST THE TRIPLE BOTTOM AT 540..AND IF WE CAN GET OFF THIS RECENT REVERSAL DOWN, AND REVERSE UP???, GUESS WHAT I'M BUYING??? AND YOU???..HEY IT IS STILL IN PLAY..THE STOCKS ARE HOLDING WELL UNDER HEAVY SELLING AND MASS CARNAGE..SAYS ALOT ABOUT THESE STOCKS FOLKS... NOW HEADS UP HERE..ON TUES THIS WEEK ALONG WITH DA FED, IS THE SEMICONDUCTOR BOOK TO BILL NUMBER..."IF" IT'S UP AGAIN(WHO KNOWS) AND THE FED CUTS AS I EXPECT THEY WILL..."BADA BING, BADA BANG"..HELLO OUT THERE YOU SORTA WITH ME ON THIS???..NOT SAYING IT WILL HAPPEN THAT WAY..BUT I AM READY WITH SOME SERIOUS POTENTIAL LONGS LATE TUES IN THE SEMI SECTOR IF THIS AND IF THAT HAPPENS...LOTSA IFS ANDS & BUTS, BUTT HEY WHAT CAN I SAY<VBG>???? OH AND BUY THE WAY HERE TROOPERS..THE SOX INDEX THAT WAS 100% OVER BOUGFHT AWHILE AGO..IS 100% OVERSOLD ON THE DAILY..AND HEAVILY OVERSOLD ON THE WEEKLY...MY MY MY...WHAT A POTENTIAL SETUP..IF I'M RIGHT...WE'LL SEE HUH??? DA VIX INDEX...GEE WHIZ..IT REVERSED UP LAST WEEK RIGHT ON CUE INTO THE CYCLE LOWS...SPEAKING OF WHICH...REMEMBER THIS AGAIN FOR THE NEXT QUARTER...AND THAT Q, SHOULD BE A DOOZIE<G>...IT'S OCT???..OH WOW!!!...IF CARPINO HAS A CYCLE LOW DURING OCT OPTIONS EXPIRATION WEEK, AND WE HAVE ANOTHER FOMC JUST AFTER IT...THE EXACT SAME SENARIO THAT HAPPENED INTO THIS MEETING LAST WEEK WILL OCCURR AGAIN..I WILL BE COMMENTING ON THIS LATER....THE VIX REVERSED UP AND TOUCHED 26 THE PERFECT REVERSAL FOR ME..NOW IF IT HAPPENS TO TOUCH 28??? THAT WOULD BE EVEN BETTER..IT'S VERY HEAVY R THERE AT 28..AND I WOULD EXPECT A REACTION DOWN FROM THERE.."IF" IT EVEN GETS THERE MON/TUES...LET'S HOPE SO...A BREAK OF 29 MEANS WE ARE TANKING A LOT FURTHER FIRST..KEEP THAT IN MIND... AND I WOULD THINK WHEN THE MARKET RALLIES OFF THIS VIX REVERSAL, THAT WE WILL IN FACT BREAK THE LAST LOWS ON THAT INDEX AT 20...EVERYTHING I SEE, EVERYTHING IN THE CHARTS SAY WE ARE DUE FOR A TECHNICAL BOUNCE..NOT SURE HOW FAR WE GO, SINCE THERE IS A CONSTANT BARAGE OF BAD NEWS OUT THERE WITHOUT A LET UP...AND MORE OVER..ALL THE TOP LINE BETTER STOCKS ARE BEGINING TO BREAKDOWN TOO..MSFT--QCOM--EBAY---ETC ETC ETC..NEGATIVE FOR SURE...SO WE'RE BEING CAUTIOUS IF WE GO LONG..USING TRAILING STOPS FOR SURE!!!!!!!!!!!!...FOLKS I COULD BE DEAD WRONG ON THIS...BUT..I DON'T THINK SO... OK HERE'S SOME STOCKS TO TRADE EITHER SIDE WITH AN UPWARD THINKING BIAS "AFTER" THE FOMC AND THE BOOK TO BILL...DO "NOT" ANTICIPATE...HAHAHAHAHAHAHA KLAC----BROKE A DOUBLE BOTTOM LAST WEEK..AND THE BULLISH SUPPORT LINE(BSL) AT 48 THE 3 BOX REVERSAL UP TO CONFIRM THE NEXT MOVE UP WOULD BE 51......49 1/4 THE BUY TRIGGER LONG....46 3/4 THE SHORT SALE(SS) TRIGGER...STAY LONG USING TRAILING STOPS IF WE TRIGGER AND THEN PRINT 51..YA HEAR??? THATS HOW TO USE THE P&F 3 BOX REVERSALS UP..OR 3 BOX REVERSALS DOWN IF YOUR SHORT...THEY ARE TELLING US WE ARE CONFIRMING THE CURRENT TREND...COULD GET A NICE BOUNCE TO R(RESISTANCE) AT 52/53ISH... CY----HELD THE DAILY UPTREND LINE ON THE CANDLE CHART...THE BSL(BULLISH SUPPORT LINE) IS AT 22 EVEN...24 THE BUY TRIGGER...OR SEE IF IT CAN HIT 22, THEN BUY IT WITH A STOP AT 20....BUT IF IT IS SIDEWAYS THRU TUES...WE'LL WATCH IT TO RESET THE TRIGGER...AUTOMATIC BUY AT 24...21 3/4 IS THE SS TRIGGER... TQNT---WE DID GOOD ON THIS LITTLE GUY...LET'S SEE IF WE CAN DO IT AGAIN..BOTH WAYS THO...21 3/4 THE BUY TRIGGER LONG...24 THE 3 BOX REVERSAL BACK UP...AND A HOLD LONG FOR SURE...19 1/2 IS A MAJOR SHORT SALE TRIGGER AS IT BREAKS A TRIPLE BOTTOM ON THAT NUMBER...IT WOULD RUN TO 17 1/2 18... MCHP---TOUGH NUT TO CRACK HERE..HELD THE BSL ON FRIDAY...AND A DOUBLE BOTTOM...32 1/2 THE BUY TRIGGER LONG...35 THE 3 BOX REVERSAL BACK UP OFF THAT SUPPORT...30 1/2 THE SHORT SALE(SS) TRIGGER... AMAT---IT'S SITTING RIGHT ON THE BSL...AMAZING STRENGTH FOR SURE...DOWNSIDE NEAR TERM RISK IS 40 OR SO....43 1/2 THE BUY TRIGGER LONG WITH 46 THE 3 BOX REVERSAL BACK UP...41 1/4 THE SS TRIGGER... ELNT--INCREDIBLY STRONG STOCK AND CHART....IT HAS AN INSIDE BAR ON THE DAILY CANDLE CHART SETTING UP A BREAK ONE WAY OR THE OTHER...IT'S ABOVE THE 20 & 40 EMA'S AND RIGHT ON THE 200...BE SAFE HERE..38 3/4 THE BUY TRIGGER..WITH THE DOUBLE TOP AT 41 AND NEAR TERM RESISTANCE(R)...BUT 42 IS A NICE BREAKOUT AREA...I LOVE THIS STOCK LONG...35 3/4 THE SS TRIGGER... DELL--HEY UNDER ALL SORTS OF PREASURE BUT STILL HOLDING THE BSL LINE FOR MONTHS...IT ROUND TRIPPED TO THE JUNE BOTTOM AT THE BREAK OF 23...BUT STILL HOLDING THE DOUBLE BOTTOM ON P&F...24 1/4 THE BUY TRIGGER LONG...26 THE 3 BOX BACK UP.....21 3/4 THE SHORT SALE..AND A SERIOUS BREACH OF SUPPORT... QCOM---HAS BEEN A REMARKABLE TRADER...IT FINALLY BROKE MY UPTREND LINE ON THE DAILY CANDLE CHART...IT NEEDS TO REVERSE UP QUICKLY HERE OR IT'S IN TROUBLE...62 3/4 THE BUY TRIGGER LONG...AND ANYTHING OVER 64 1/2 WOULD BE GREAT...60 1/4 THE SHORT TRIGGER...IT COULD GET IT TO 56/57 FAST...WATCH THIS ONE...BOTH WAYS..AND SET STOPS... EBAY---IT LOOKED LIKE TO ME THERE WAS A PIERCING PATTERN ON THURSDAY, BUT IT ALMOST FAILED ON FRIDAY..ON THE DAILY CANDLE CHART..ON P&F...IT COMPLETELY BROKE HEAVY SUPPORT BY PRINTING BELOW 59 THE TRIPLE BOTTOM BREAKDOWN..SO WHILE WE CAN TRADE IT FOR A POP..IT'S NOW TECHNICALLY A SHORT ALL RALLY TYPE PLAY.....60 1/4 THE BUY TRIGGER LONG...THATS ALSO THE 3 BOX REVERSAL BACK UP, AND WE COULD GET A RUN TOWARD 64/65...57 3/4 THE SS TRIGGER... NVDA---WOO HOO..WHAT A HOOT TO TRADE THIS ONE...GEE WHIZ...THIS STOCK IS ABOVE ALL MVA'S ON THE DAILY CHART..AND HAS JUST NOW PULLED BACK TO THE 20 & 40 EMA'S...IT BROKE A DOUBLE BOTTOM AT 84 HAS SOME MINOR S AT 82/83 AREA...85 1/4 THE BUY TRIGGER LONG..WAIT FOR IT PLEASE...87 THE 3 BOX REVERSAL BACK UP..WITH 89 VERY VERY TOUGH R RIGHT THERE...OBVIOUSLY ANY BREAK OF 90 WOULD BE ENORMOUS HERE...82 1/2 THE SS TRIGGER... MCRL---HELD THE BSL SO FAR...AND THE CHARTS BEEN IN AN UPTREND...30 1/2 THE BUY TRIGGER LONG..WITH 33 THE 3 BOX REVERSAL UP...34 MINOR NEAR TERM R...28 3/4 THE SHORT SALE TRIGGER...AND A GOOD ONE TOO.. CREE---IN A MAJOR TRIANGLE AND IT'S GOING TO BREAK HERE..ONE WAY OR THE OTHER...23 1/2 THE BUY TRIGGER..WITH 25 THE 3 BOX UP..IT'S HELD THE BSL LINE AS WELL...21 1/2 THE SS TRIGGER...AND A BREAK OF THE BSL.. JBL---ONLY FOR THE AGRESSIVE TRADER HERE..IT'S RIGHT AT SERIOUS SUPPORT ON BOTH THE P&F CHART AND CANDLES TOO...IT HAD A BIG VOLUME SPIKE ON FRIDAY AS IT SOLD OFF...ARE THEY DONE YET??? HE HE HE...23 3/4 THE BUY TRIGGER LONG...26 A CHANGE IN TREND UP HERE...AND MARKET WILLING IT COULD RUN RIGHT UP TO THE TOP OF THE TRADING RANGE IF WE RALLY TO...31/.32...HOWEVER..YOUR MAJOR STOP LOSS HERE WOIULD BE 21 3/4...A MAJOR BREAKDOWN OF THE S AREA...AND GUESS WHAT..A PERFECT SHORT SALE TRIGGER BIG TIME... MU---RIGHT AT THE CLIFF LIKE JBL..IDENTICAL SET UPS HERE...36 HAS BEEN MAJOR S...MAJOR..OF COURSE THESE SUPPORT AREAS CAN GET BROKEN EASILY...AT THIS JUNCTURE IN THE MARKETS...BUT..WE'LL WATCH FOR A POP MAYBE..EVERYONE AND THERE GRANDMOTHERS IS BEARISH ON THIS STOCK...<VBG>....37 1/4 THE BUY TRIGGER LONG...39 THE 3 BOX BACK UP...MAYBE IT CAN MUSTER A RALLY BACK TO THE TOP AGAIN..HUH??? LIKE AT 43ISH...34 3/4 IS A MAJOR SELL TRIGGER SHORT..MAJOR... SEPR---STOCKS RIGHT AT THE BRINK OF DISASTER...I LOVE THESE TYPE OF TRADES AS THEY BRING US A MAJOR MOVE USUALLY IN EITHER DIRECTION...39 1/2 THE NICE BUY TRIGGER LONG...41 3 BOX BACK UP...37 1/4 THE SS TRIGGER WITH ANY BREAK OF 35ISH REAL TROUBLE..BIG TROUBLE... CLS---YEPPERS SAME CHART PATTERN..RIGHT AT THE BRINK OF DEATH AND DESTRUCTION...40 1/4 THE BUY TRIGGER LONG...43 THE 3 BOX BACK UP...47 48 DOABLE UPSIDE TARGET....38 1/2 A DYNAMIC SHORT SALE TRIGGER...TAKES IT TO 31...WHOO HOO...WATCH IT BOTH WAYS SHOULD BE FUN... BTW I AM TRYING TO PUT SOME NEW FACES IN HERE ON THE NYSE TOO..AS THAT INDEX IS ACTING BETTER... POWI---ONE HELL OF A CHART ON P&F...AMAZING REALLY HOW STRONG IT'S ACTED.......22 3/4 THE NICE BUY TRIGGER LONG...26 THE EXPECTED TEST OF TOP..27 BYE BYE CITY...20 1/4 THE SS...SUPPORT AT 18 1/2... JAKK---ANOTHER AMAZING CHART ON BOTH TA'S..ABOVE ALL MVA'S ON THE CANDLE CHART..AND GETTING READY FOR A MAJOR BREAKOUT ON P&F...21 3/4 A BIG BREAKOUT AND BLUE SKY OVER 22/23...19 1/4 THE SS TRIGGER..WITH ANY BREAK OF 18 1/5 A BIGGER EXPECTED MOVE SOUTH... MYGN---EPS ON THE 21ST..NEAR THE CLIFF...39 1/2 THE BUY TRIGGER...37 THE BIG SHORT TRIGGER... HGSI---BIOS LOOK BAD BUT...44 3/4 THE BUY TRIGGER...42 1/4 PLUNGE CITY SS... PDLI---BROKE DOWN AGAIN LAST WEEK AT 50...THIS STOCK IS IN A FREE FALL...51 IS THE BUY TRIGGER LONG..WAIT FOR IT PLEASE...48 1/2 THE SS ... HD---VERY VERY TOUGH HERE..I LIKE THE CHART, I LIKE IT'S ON THE NYSE TOO...50 1/4 THE BUY TRIGGER LONG..51 A NICE BREAKOUT THERE ON P&F...48 1/2 THE SS TRIGGER... NSM---BEAUTIFUL CHART AND NOW A 3 BOX REVERSAL DOWN ON P&F SETTING UP MAYBE FOR ANOTHER RALLY???...PULLED BACK TO THE 40 EMA DAILY 200 IS RIGHT THERE AT 29ISH TOO...31 1/2 THE BUY TRIGGER LONG...TEST 34 FOR SURE..THEN???.....29 1/2 THE SS... OK FOLKS THATS ABOUT IT FOR NOW...I'LL BE TALKING OVER THE NEXT 2-4 WEEKS ABOUT A LEAP CALL PORTFOLIO FOR THE EXPECT DOOM AND GLOOM SENARIO LATER THIS FALL...A NICE WAY TO PLAY THE TECHS WITH LESS DOLLARS AND PLENTY OF UPSIDE MOVEMENT... OH YEAH ALMOST FORGOT..THOSE OF YOU THAT ARE DUE TO RENEW, AND HAVE NOT GOTTEN A CONFIRMATION FROM PAYPAL...IT MEANS YOUR NOT SET UP YET ON RECURRING BILLING...PLEASE JUST RENEW NOW THOSE THAT ARE DUE THIS WEEK..OR FROM THE 15TH THRU THE 20TH...GIVE IT ONE DAY OR SO TO BE SURE...BUT BOTH OF US WILL GET E-MAILS FROM PAYPAL, LETTING US KNOW OF THE RENEWAL..ALSO..THAT E-MAIL I SENT OUT ON FRIDAY WAS A TEST..THATS ALL... WE HAVE A POTENTIAL GAME PLAN HERE FOR THE SHORT TERM...LET IT UNFOLD FIRST A BIT TO SEE IF I'M RIGHT... HAVE A GREAT TRADING WEEK..IT SURE WILL BE FUN.. BEST TO YOU AND YOURS JERRY

To: Jerry Olson who wrote (3274)	8/24/2001 8:11:39 AM
From: chartseer	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 5893

HD: May I remind you once again that BPBUIL is in a column of Os at 66 down from 78. Now HD's weekly momentum crossed to negative. Then again what the heck do I know? I'm still just learning how to play this game, chartseer