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Technology Stocks : VALENCE TECHNOLOGY (VLNC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Robert Cohen who wrote (24787)	8/24/2001 11:43:19 AM
From: I. N. Vester	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 27311

Robbie, what you are saying makes a lot of sense and is a constructive suggestion - demand actually, but very, very reasonable given all we have been thru! I disagree on several small points: 1) I don't think many longs of much sophistication are at all surprised by the plan or the timetable. I don't believe "the street" is trading out based on the call. Everything said is 100% predictable given what we already knew about the situation, the selling cycle, the need to close new business, the fact that this was known to be a 'turnaround'. Hoping for any more than we heard was wishful thinking, 2) Don't jump to conclusions that you will have to wait a year for signs of success and stock appreciation. Stephan said he would not name an OEM until the end product is on the street, but he said nothing to preclude announcing a "major design win" once he gets far enough to know it's going beyond pilot levels of production. Even given past disappointments, such an announcement say in late fall, is still a very possible catalyst for the stock to double overnight and treble in a week. I don't think anybody expects to get back to $20 and beyond without seeing Stephan execute at least 4 Q's, but still to me the risk/reward ratio looks better than ever given this market. If Stephan executes with any degree of success I see the stock at 2-3 times current price in a year. This is no longer a mo-mo market. CSCO, SUNW, etc are expected to return 10-20% at best in that timeframe. Yes, there is a risk that the things don't go as planned, but this has always been a high risk stock. I also think the risk/reward profile for OEM's designing in Vlnc batteries to their laptop line is essentially the same as it was before. I.e. Valence's chance of success in selling to an OEM is not affected by the performance of the economy. The OEMs are designing new systems no matter what. Even in a sluggish environment, any major laptop design win is huge for Valence. Hence i see this as a rain-or-shine play where key varibles for appreciation are largely independent of the pace of economic recovery. That having been said, it is likely that until major milestones are met, support for the stock will fluctuate with the market, possibly with a continuing high volatility. It's also quite true that this is a very high risk situation not for the fainthearted. If Stephan and this team fail to execute those who are slow to abandon them are going lose a lot of $$$ from here. There will not be any "A-team" to go to after this one!!!