Hi Maurice, <<flimsiest … warn … nothing of value>> Often a warning is just that, altruistic if not clearly deliberated and delivered shout that says, “watch out, something is wrong, and may be it is …, unless it is that, if I am not wrong”. It is then up to others in the zone of danger to assess the risks warned about, and scan the environment for other risks.
As in the case of Globalstar, some folks are warning about the entire financial system, the way it is funded, operated, regulated, guided, and the speed and efficiency with which it can destroy value, with more immediate down than upside side, with higher negative expectation than positive.
<<The single reason Globalstar … high demand and reducing it.>>
It was the wrong focus, badly structure, incorrectly phased, with badly worked out economics, and no pilot marketing whatsoever, because the leaders were not leaders, oblivious to the risk they place shareholders’ money.
Message 16258667
<<You did not identify that fault and that was the single fault that caused the failure>>
Failure is generally setup by a combination of design, execution, and chance events going wrong. We are now waiting for that unique combination of events to properly aggregate for the entire financial market. As in fractal math, scale up from Globalstar, and see that its chart might be applicable to other companies, more companies, private balance sheets, governments, and then kaboom, collapse.
As in the case of Globalstar, there will not be a single reason for the kaboom.
<<I will repeat so it's easy to get. Globalstar failed because they didn't test minute and handset price elasticity starting with high demand and cheap prices>>
… yes and no. They did not design and execute the right Focus, Structure (including management choice), Phasing, and their Economics did not work. Globalstar was led not by leaders, but cheerleaders.
<<I am delighted to see Uncle Al getting things right … a small wall of money went stampeding into the stock market today. Uncle Al has told them not to try to hide in the US$. They are scuttling like crabs from under a rock that has just been lifted>>
You have just elegantly described the workings of a bear market :0)
<<I expect there will be no more interest rate cuts>>
… Yes, all the short term interest rate cuts Greenspankie can dream up (easy, only 3.5% more to go), followed by continuing debt explosions and financial accidents made possible by the weakened system, concurrent unemployment rise, consumption drop, delinquencies and bankruptcies, USD implosion, long rate spike, cataclysmic final gush of blood from J6P equity allocation, recriminations, investigations, recommendations, then silence, until the next abracadabra.
<<seen the bottom ... sentiment turns … quickly … be warned, they (interest rate) … rise again and while stock markets will loft ever higher>>
Yes, I agree. The bottom is more or less 7k for Dow, 1k for Nasdaq, 8k for Nikkei and Hang Seng, 1.5k (4-5k now) for Taipei index. Sentiment will more quickly turn bad than good. Agree also on the interest rate rise, but not for the reason you imply, and eventually, the stock markets will rise, tepidly at first. It's all in the timing, the weaving, bobbing, scurrying and it is no science, but art.
<<the irrational exuberance of 1998 and 1999 and into Y2K will not be back in a hurry>>
Yes, but exception made for 5% chance that Gold will boom as other assets kaboom. Humans are so very predictable on long term basis.
Chugs, Jay |
