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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tom Gordon who wrote (331)	8/27/2001 8:46:38 AM
From: Timetobuy	Respond to of 306849

No, I wouldn't rush to buy a house now. Even if rates go up a little, the price you'd be able to get a house for if they drop would more than make up for it and rates would probably be lowered at some time in the future or you'd be able to get creative financing or a good adjustable that would carry you over for a couple years. Now is the time to accumulate a stock or two if the market has them mismatched with fundamentals. It's really hard to find them right now and they might head lower into October earnings. But I think next year they'll be higher. I like a few stocks (not many) and most are just trades since they are rangebound, but they are much more liquid than houses. Why not make a few bucks in some selected trades as the market finds a base in some stocks that have been rangebound for months or more? Houses will be a good buy a few years down the road. If I'm very lucky houses will really take a hit in areas that were way too inflated. If that happens, I'll be able to pick up a place or two with a view. May take a few years to start appreciating again, but if I buy for much less than now in a good neighborhood, I'm likely to make money and get to live in a fine home.

To: Tom Gordon who wrote (331)	8/27/2001 12:39:27 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

highend properties are just sitting on the market the prices necessary to bring them to sale will not be known for a few months but they are extremely likely to be lower than recent sale prices how the prices paid for highend cascades to midrange will be interesting to watch price declines always start at the top this has been a very resilient sector some "experts" dont believe real estate will be hammered some excellent points appearing on this thread esp the rush to purchase while showing income I remember buying in suburban Boston in 1981 at 16% then in 2.5 yrs refinancing at 11% the prices of properties jumped real hard & fast, way up what appeared to be rather constant was cost/month to carry a mortgage I smell a flurry typical of blowoff tops low rates can sustain the RE sector for a while but eventually several factors will hurt - low saving rate - high household debt - upper limit on income - next round of layoffs (delayed by law) - discretionary sellers who join necessary sellers / Jim

To: Tom Gordon who wrote (331)	8/27/2001 1:11:29 PM
From: jjs_ynot	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

Some interesting links: homestore.com homestore.com Regarding Economic impacts on Real Estate

To: Tom Gordon who wrote (331)	8/28/2001 9:00:43 AM
From: SpongeBrain	Respond to of 306849

Realtors would NEVER advise against buying! Its like a headhunter telling you its not really the job you want. they just want their commissions. In fact, if you are in over your head, GREAT..b/c in 3 years, they'll be glad to take the listing and make ANOTHER commisison. Turnover is great for realtors. Headhunters, brokerages, realtors.....All profit from volume. Period.

To: Tom Gordon who wrote (331)	8/28/2001 9:08:56 AM
From: SpongeBrain	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 306849

Timing buying a house!??!...Well, enjoy your $2000/mo rent First, Lest anyone think I'm a real estate bull, please read my following post: Subject 51183 That said, This thread is an academic excercise, at best. Yes, anyone can see housing seems like an overleveraged bubble. But houses are not like stocks. What are you going to do? Live in a cardboard box until the big crash? Delay having a family? You will blow $25,000 a year in rent, waiting for the "big crash" that may not even happen. After 5 years, you've pissed away $125,000 in cash,,,,and your not even guaranteed that prices will drop. Buying a house at the peak may not even drop that much. Sure, buying high can be risky, IF prices drop.. But renting is a GUARANTEED 100% loss. Trust me: The more you try to time it, the more you think about it, the more you analyse and justify it, the more likely you are to bungle the whole thing, and hate buy the top. Either that, or you will never buy, and wait for the infinite bottom..."Wait, just another $10k lower"