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Technology Stocks : JDS Uniphase (JDSU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Timetobuy who wrote (21404)	8/28/2001 1:50:27 AM
From: sea_biscuit	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 24042

Your strategy is sound. What amazes me is how easily some people believe that 5-fold, 6-fold gains over the next 3 to 4 years are possible, and almost take it for granted . As "proof", they point out the gains of the semiconductor stocks in the past couple of years. That is ridiculous. Take a stock like LSI. It bottomed at 5 in 1998. The next four-fold rise (until the middle of 1999) was due to the fact that we were in a strong bull-market, especially for the techs. The next four-and-half-fold increase (from 20 to 90, until March 2000) was the result of the kind of speculative blowoff that we will probably see only once in a century. Such a blowoff may never ever occur again in our lifetimes, and heck, we may be in a long-drawn bear-market right now. All the "resumptions" of bull-markets we have seen so far in the past year have been bear-market rallies. So, when I see these facile and "conservative" forecasts of "this'll increase by 500%, but it's gonna take 4 or 5 years", I do wonder how long these people have been investing.