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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Uncle Frank who wrote (103309)	8/27/2001 11:24:35 PM
From: Robin Plunder	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 152472

I enjoy your posts Uncle Frank...but if I had held my JDSU thru this bear, that would have been too much to take. I think marginmike used a method to reach his conclusion to sell qcom, ie, it broke its 50 day moving average, which to an IBD reader is a key sign of a problem. The problem may not be visible at the time, but the stock action is telling us that there is a problem. Unfortunately, I only started reading IBD this summer...:) IBD has highlighted qcom a couple of times this summer in their 'trading tips' box on the front page. In one, they gave a good description of the sell signals: 1)exhaustion gap, as it gapped up on huge volume at the end of december 1999, as Piecyk made his comments 2)a subsequent higher high, but on significantly weaker volume 3)gap down below the 50 day moving average, with demonstrated inability to move back above the 50 day. The signs were there for us to see, if we knew how. For my part, I had already concluded that qcom could take a 50% hit, and I was willing to tolerate that, thinking that it would consolidate and move back higher at some point. If I had seen Hays valuation chart in 2000, I think I would have reached different conclusions, especially as April showed such broad weakness. Probably qcom will still do very well in the future..in fact, if you look at a 5 year chart for qcom, it looks not bad....about 10x gain, with a long consolidation period in progress. Looks like if we break out over 110, that we will have made a long double bottom, and perhaps have built a base for large future gains. But qcom was the exception...JDSU's 5 year chart looks like a disaster, almost no gain over that time. LTBH works most of the time, but those once-in-30year events can really hurt, and we need to be able to identify them. Robin