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To: marginmike who wrote (103314)	8/28/2001 7:45:22 AM
From: Robin Plunder	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 152472

Here are some interesting comments from Hays about his method: "Let me end this by restating a principal. There is no way you can tell a market top, or bottom by being an economist, or a fundamentalist that is trying to predict earnings. Value-Line did a survey/report of all the earnings projections made by widely followed analysts over a long-term period. It was amazing how far off the target they were. ...earnings always top out six months or more afterthe stock market. And at the bottom, the same exact trends in reverse. The stock market itself is one of the best indicators to tell when the economy is going to improve. So the world (and virtually all the prominent strategists) don't have a chance. They have the cart before the horse. If you will depend on certain indicators that have a long history of foretelling the market bottoms and tops, you can call the market very effectively. There will always be some crazy inter-trends that confuse investors.." His method reminds me of the method of IBD, to some extent, in that the rules put forward by IBD involve looking at the data from the market rather than from the economy. In Hays case, the arms index, for example, is strictly a ratio calculated from market data....no economic input. Is the arms index a valid indicator, and if so, how would one demonstrate that it is valid? Robin

To: marginmike who wrote (103314)	8/28/2001 12:16:09 PM
From: Dennis O'Bell	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 152472

In some fairness, huge numbers of spoo poots expired worthless before the days of glory finally came. Almost nobody rationally saw how insane it was going to get before it ended. Buffett may have seen it coming, but he's also said things like "the optimal time to hold a stock is forever...", it just goes to show that sound bites out of context shouldn't be trusted coming from anybody! Lots of friends of mine made good money accumulating DEC stock all during the 70's up to the mid 80's when they sold and bought houses, so as you observe it's a matter of timing. What got me out basically in time was I couldn't sleep at night, my accounts started fluctuating by a year's salary in a matter of a few days, I realized it was totally nuts at that point and sold. I don't know if I want to live thru that again, it wasn't investing, it was pure gambling on mass psychology at the point things were at and I should never have had that much of my equity at risk like that.

To: marginmike who wrote (103314)	8/28/2001 2:50:17 PM
From: Uncle Frank	Respond to of 152472

>> Again this is silly... The only thing that would be silly would be for you and me to get into a debate of investment styles on this thread. Our investment windows differ so greatly that it would be impossible for us to reach accord or avoid acrimony. Let's stick to the Q. uf