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To: Dennis O'Bell who wrote (103327)	8/28/2001 12:20:56 PM
From: marginmike	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

COT uses spoos as hedge they are either % short or long. When they are Net long again is when its time to go short. 80% of the time whhen their short hits a record level the market goes south. They saw it coming pure and simple. The spreads in rates between Comercial paper and treasuries signaled the 98 fiasco and the 2000. The signs are all there, its human nature to ignore them

To: Dennis O'Bell who wrote (103327)	8/28/2001 1:56:41 PM
From: Jon Koplik	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

Re : "What got me out (of being heavily invested)" -- what really got you out was : the decreasing marginal utility of wealth ... A concept that should be taught in any good first year micro-economics course. And ... which (if it were the ONLY thing one understood and remembered from a whole year's worth of stuff) is incredibly useful and valuable information, and worth enduring a lot of "dry" lectures. (I brought up this idea in a post I once did over on the Krispy Kreme Doughnuts thread : Message 15136796 ). Jon. P.S. On that old KKD post -- the person I was responding to ... they used to have a different SI "name" (Mr. Burns).