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To: uu who wrote (24079)	8/28/2001 4:06:29 PM
From: sea_biscuit	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25814

Addi, this is how I would summarize it : In 1929, we started an 18-year secular bear market, followed by a 20-year bull market (1947-66). This was followed in 1966 by a 17-year secular bear market (1966-82), and by an 18-year bull (1982-2000). The secular bull of 1982-2000 ended last year. We are now in a bear-market. Whether it is a secular bear or not, it is a little too early to say, but the chances are that it is an incipient secular bear. Here's a question for you -- if the major indexes, i.e. the Dow, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq, all make NEW lows next year, would you concede that we had gone through a bear market? Or would you still say that we are in a bull-market? There are certain economic models that have developed and matured over the years that makes it literally impossible for people/investors to let negative emotions take over the more positive sides. Wow! You just stopped short of saying that the old human race has been replaced by a more intelligent species! That's a good one. I am sure we will refer to this one in the coming months and years... Bottom line, there is absolutely nothing -- and I mean nothing - that can convince me to validate any of your illogical overly pessimistic views of the markets (and the world in general) -- unless one or all of the following happens: a) Unemployment reaches 8%+. b) George Bush forces himself to the white house once again in 2004. c) Hell freezes over and over and over again! Of the three above, (c) makes no sense. We don't even know if there is a hell. (a) is a number that can be manipulated any way the government wants it (see elsewhere on SI for more info on this) and (b) is something that will happen if a bull-market starts by 2004.