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To: uu who wrote (24081)8/28/2001 5:02:37 PM
From: Jock Hutchinson  Read Replies (4) | Respond to of 25814
 
Addi: I am not so optimistic. One of the most troubling pronouncements to come out of the Bush administration has been rumblings of trade protection/retalliation.

Moreover, this clown is now referring to his pledge to not tap into Social Security as "symbolic". Wow. That's enough to enrage a hard core Republican like me.

More to the point, your suggestion that the world is better off today, and as a result there will be no more bear markets is of course ludicrous.

We have had lots of bear markets during times when terriffic social progress was made--most notably between 1966 and 1982, a time period during which you concede a bear market occurred.

And there is no question that as far as the NAZ is concerned, we are in a bear market. A 60% correction doesn't exist. It's a bear market, and it's that simple.

Here's a sobering thought that I have to share with you. It's about the much vaunted consumer spending that is keeping this economy out of a recession.(at least until the GDP comes out on Wed)

My thought is that it has been so long since we had an economic slowdown, that the consumer (WHO IS ALWAYS THE LAST TO KNOW ANYWAY) has not changed spending patterns because the consumer has not adatpted to the underlying changes is the capital goods economy (WHICH IS AND WILL ALWAYS BE THE DRIVER OF THE ECONOMY AR AS INITIATING CHANGE).
And as a result, the consumer has been a step behind in adjusting to the slowing of the economy. Does this not mean that we could be in for a worse than usualy recession, simply because the consumer continues to overspend despite warning signs that should have told the consumer to start saving?

Surely the market is not telling us that the worse is anywhere near over.