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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: michael97123 who wrote (51291)	8/30/2001 4:43:59 PM
From: Sam Citron	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

I think you are over-analyzing this, Mike. This is the beginning of tax loss selling season, both institutional and individual. Whether institutional tax loss selling will be as bad as last year is not the issue. Historically, stocks that have seen as significant a loss as JDSU just don't tend to turn around before the end of the year (assuming they do turn around). Look at enough LT charts and you will see what I mean. I don't think tax loss selling fully explains this tendency. Part of it may be explained by simple end of year bargain hunting, whether you want to call it the January effect or whatever. These industry fashion changes just have a bigger tendency to happen in late December than at any other time of year. With momentum as negative as it is in FO sector, I think that is the earliest we could expect to see a possible turnaround, although October will witness the usual bounces.

To: michael97123 who wrote (51291)	8/30/2001 5:01:12 PM
From: Paul V.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Sam, remember there are more stocks than techs. The techs have been at the lower DW percentiles for more than a year. IMO, we may see a stock rotation in technology since there lows EPS have bee in the ptts. Any gain this future year (2002) in Techs will be be measured agains their low EPS this past year. When the institutionals and corporations begin to upgrade Techs could jump tremendously. I would hate to be shorting when the turn around occurs. Some will loose their A__ and never recover. Just my opinion. Paul