Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: gold$10k who wrote (928)	8/30/2001 7:53:47 PM
From: Roebear	Respond to of 36161

valutrader, Those were excellent points to expand on. I myself don't have any views other than what you have so well stated. I'll be looking forward to a discussion here on the subject of "The Tale of Three Tax Sellings", I believe it is an important one. Best Regards, Roebear

To: gold$10k who wrote (928)	8/30/2001 11:28:57 PM
From: isopatch	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 36161

vt. Good question. You are right about the key tax months for institutions and individuals. But remember the 1st law of investing is preservation of capital. That "prime directive"<g> will kick in big time if I'm right in my read that this selling is going to continue to spread. Trust me<g>, in the rush to get out before prices fall further institutions and everyone else will quickly forget tax considerations. Each end of quarter report from the funds is publicly released and has always received a great deal more attention and scrutiny than the fund mgrs asset allocations in effect by the October tax deadline. I'm not saying the strong focus placed on Sept report by investors and the financial press is better or more helpful than it would be to give more attention to the October portfolio. Just saying that's the way it is. And precisely because they are about to have their investment performance put under the microscope? Institutional mgrs are most prone to being panicked in or out of large positions during powerful trends that accelerate with little more than 20 biz days left til "they take the picture", as it's called on The Street. In down markets, I've seen these Sept institutional "portfolio blowouts" several times. The biggest was in the papa Bear Market of 1973-74 when I was just a youngun<G> That Sept 74' low was the primary and momentum low for the entire Bear. In December of 74 it was tested and it was up up and away after that. Wouldn't be surprised to see the same pattern emerge this time. For over a year, a number of us have been noting the spooky similarities between this Bear Market and the 1973-74 market. A September washout would be just another. Hope that answers your question. Isopatch