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Technology Stocks : Oracle Corporation (ORCL) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BelowTheCrowd who wrote (16138)	8/31/2001 7:19:46 AM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19079

Hi Mike, You make a good point. I think the nature of our markets will not revert back to the older days of call your broker and hope that their back office can keep up. In many respects we're in this electronic world of fast executions,whipping volatilty with little alternative but to advance. I'm thinking the record level of shorts is ominous proof of some vicious volatility yet to come. My memories of market bottoms do go back to the October 98 as what a bear market is like.The other slower markets like you reference are possible ,but I believe this slow down is an inventory correction resulting from some blind overproduction going back all the way to "bonus padding in 2000. Our current environment is absent of the major systemic problems that were obstinantly entrenched in the global economy: inflation,deficit spending,high interest rates,unemployment. This business slowdown has to eliminate some excess capacity and we'll recover quite quickly - more like the October 98 rebound. JMHO Bob I sure don't want to get into a time warp slowdown either.But as you point out is a possibility to ponder.Thanks for the perspective.

To: BelowTheCrowd who wrote (16138)	8/31/2001 2:36:27 PM
From: JSwanson	Respond to of 19079

Have a look at that nasty dip in late 1990, the last real bear market we've experienced (and even it was pretty lame compared to the early 70s...). See how long it takes to recover the value after that nasty dip? More than TWO YEARS! And you had plenty of room to get in without much trouble after things bottomed out. I think the chart you point to has more to do with the accounting problems at ORCL in 1990 than with a general market recovery (if you can call it that). In fact to call 1990 a bear market is laughable since it was sandwiched in between two 30%+ years. Note the S&P 500 performance below: 1989 31.7% 1990 - 3.1% (A bear market? Right!) 1991 30.5% I get the impression that the person who hasn't been there is you. Because if you'd ever experienced the recovery from a REAL bear market, you'd know better. No, I get the impression that you are the one that doesn't understand, at least based on your example, the equity markets even with the benefit of hindsight 20/20. Markets do in fact turn just when no one expects them to. It didn't take a rocket scientist to know that the market was hugely over valued in late 1999 and early 2000. It would have taken someone very lucky or a whole lot smarter than a rocket scientist to know when it would collapse. Certainly bear markets take time to "resolve themselves" but when they do they can turn sharply. PS. Please don't respond citing 1973-74 and 1929 examples as both of these bear markets had problems much more far reaching than excessive equity valuations and tons of easy money. Regards, JS