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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: chowder who wrote (7276)	8/31/2001 8:20:13 PM
From: Think4Yourself	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

It is the bears, not the bulls, who have not learned from history. Take a look at what historically happens after a bad August and you will find that September and October are usually much better than when August was good. Take a look at how many of the October crashes have occurred after the fed has been actively lowering interest rates. Take a look at what historically happens 6-12 months after the fed starts cutting rates. Look at how many times the economy has failed to recover within 12 months after the start of such a dramatic series of rate cuts. There are even sayings to remind people, like "Don't fight the fed" and "never short a dull market". In other words, from a historical perspective, the bears are shorting at the bottom hoping to get the last dollar. The bears have been taking history out of context in numerous ways, probably more to support what they want to happen than to mislead. I'm betting history repeats itself so I am very long here. The economic data coming out now confirms history is going to repeat itself. Incidentally yesterday's losses were wiped out by today's action. Up on the week and up on the month. It appears the indexes are masking what is really happening in the market, or maybe the shorts in my stocks are covering and moving to greener pastures. Either way it doesn't matter. Best part is that there are still a snotload of shorts who will be covering soon. History and an all time high short interest make for a combination that brings a tear to my eye ;o)

To: chowder who wrote (7276)	8/31/2001 9:29:52 PM
From: Warpfactor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

All, Found this sniplet: "August has been the weakest month of the year for the last ten years. January 1.53% February 0.63% March 1.44% April 1.44% May 0.98% June 1.57% July 0.77% August -0.91% September 1.11% October 1.85% November 1.50% December 1.80%" Warp

To: chowder who wrote (7276)	9/2/2001 12:44:48 PM
From: cnyndwllr	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

Good morning Dabum. You ask: "What if the market doesn't turn up after the next drop? What if something else pops up to cause it to drop further?" You also state: "To sit and hold long term positions, knowing the market is going into historically, the most volatile trading months of the year, is akin to standing at attention and letting a Drill Instructor continuously slap you upside the head while you scream, "Sir, may the private have another!"' Those are two of the reasons why I am in the market now, although not margined yet. Many investors/traders have been whipsawed many times and have seen their portfolio values severely impaired as a result. Those people fear a loss greatly. The fear that the market might drop and not come back soon, and the knowledge that these are volatile times and volatile months in the market continues to create selling and dampen any buying. Those fears are reflected in the prices of equities. It's my belief that in a coldly logical world where fears and greed did not play such a large role, the prices of many equities would be higher. I see an economic recovery ahead, I see companies that will easily weather any downturn and I believe the sun will rise again and we will all once again get fat and lazy in the Autumn sun, but then I'm an optimist. g. The truth is that the same fund managers and retail investors that are so afraid of buying into a loss now, will be equally afraid of losing out on a gain as soon as it looks like sentiment is going to change. This creates a great deal of control in the institutional investors who have the funds and media control to jump start a powerful rally anytime they want. I think those investors will want a rally soon, I think the signs of a recovery justify that rally and I hope to profit from it. If I am right, I will look for signs of a continued economic recovery to determine whether to stay invested. One thing I read a while back and have seen demonstrated many times is that most stocks make most of their gains in a hand full of trading days during the year. It's important to be there for those days. I think that it's hard to predict the precise day, but easy to see the pressure building for those days. I think that pressure is there now in the market for many stocks. Remember 1998? If I am wrong then, to answer you rhetorical query on what would happen, I will lose a lot of money, smile at my own foolishness and then figure out a new plan and get it back. Sometimes the willingness and ability to take risks are great strengths and sometimes they are great weaknesses. All I can do is make a cost-benefit analysis, compute my ability to take the risks and step in when others are less able or willing to do so. There are no guarantees, even for those who follow trends. Trends do, as we all know full well, change and sometimes they change very quickly. I'm sure you have heard the old saying that most people waiting for their ship to come in never sent one out. My ship is sailing out there somewhere. I suspect news of its fate will be known shortly. Ed