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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Think4Yourself who wrote (7279)	8/31/2001 9:18:02 PM
From: energyplay	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 23153

But this time it's different ! the SKY is falling ! ;-) JQP - I think we may differ specific stocks, and timing and valuation issues - >>>>Take a look at what historically happens 6-12 months after the fed starts cutting rates. Look at how many times the economy has failed to recover within 12 months after the start of such a dramatic series of rate cuts.<<<< 12 months from January of 2001 is January 2002. Maybe we see a robust Holiday retail season- (Hey ! the Gas bill is lower ! Let's go to the mall and spend money !) Maybe things get better in Spring as the tax REFUNDS roll in... I think when we see how poor the recovery is for some stocks (like SEMIS) , we could both be right. I expect the Semis and contract people to get crunched. Networkers, optical, and some others may be "down so long it looks like up to them "... I think there is and expectation that business will go back to 70-80 or 1999 levels. I think for many industries, unit volumes will get back to 50% of 1999 levels but with a 20% price reduction, so dollar levels will be 40% of 1999 and future growth rates under 15%, not over 20%... That will take the P/E and P/S way down, even as business is improving. I'm Short - Semis - SOX (puts only) SMH XLNX (still 8 X price/sales !) RFMD Contract assembly FLEX (this is a well run company. I should have picked flakey one !) COF Capital One - credit cards - my new favorite short -check the chart on this ! Natural gassers ----- APC (puts only) DVN (puts only) EOG (puts only) COG (puts only) and some Rydex Artkos (RYAIX) for my IRA I will admit that your reasoning is making me consider that I may want to close some of my Semi shorts in mid-September, rather than waiting for an October drop which may not happen....