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To: Sergio H who wrote (9610)	9/1/2001 2:30:34 PM
From: James Strauss	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 13094

Sergio: This is the first recession I can remember where we've had relatively low unemployment... That's what's helped keep consumer confidence up so far... This week we began seeing some cracks in those numbers... Layoff announcements from Charles Schwab are a constant reminder that the employment Dominoes keep falling... Here is a comparison of layoffs by Qtr for the past few years The first two Qtrs of this year show a 33.5% cumulative increase in layoffs over the first two Qtrs of 2000... ftp://146.142.4.23/pub/news.release/mslo.txt (you'll need to cut and past this address)... Table A. Selected measures of mass layoff activity ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Period \| Layoff events\| Separations \|Initial claimants ------------------------ \|-------------- \|-------------- \|----------------- 1997 January-March...........\| 1,317 \| 255,227 \| 224,180 April-June..............\| 1,587 \| 351,198 \| 292,673 July-September..........\| 1,082 \| 217,869 \| 209,019 October-December........\| 1,697 \| 321,821 \| 316,035 1998 January-March...........\| 1,320 \| 208,082 \| 247,315 April-June..............\| 1,563 \| 391,461 \| 402,276 July-September..........\| 1,234 \| 248,054 \| 256,803 October-December........\| 1,734 \| 379,976 \| 325,990 1999 January-March...........\| 1,509 \| 277,780 \| 252,122 April-June..............\| 1,444 \| 294,968 \| 242,464 July-September..........\| 1,097 \| 241,725 \| 189,973 October-December........\| 1,625 \| 334,794 \| 287,685 2000 January-March(r)........\| 1,330 \| 254,646 \| 221,368 April-June(r)...........\| 1,271 \| 258,608 \| 231,471 July-September(r)... ..\| 1,014 \| 230,072 \| 188,641 October-December(r).....\| 2,005 \| 427,019 \| 376,024 2001 January-March(r)........\| 1,768 \| 340,780 \| 335,877 April-June(p)...........\| 1,911 \| 371,708 \| 268,809 ------------------------------------------------------------------- p=preliminary. r=revised. Until we see these layoffs decrease, we are likely to see a rise in unemployment rates accompanied by a further drop in the consumer confidence numbers... Jim