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To: Bill Harmond who wrote (130865)9/2/2001 5:06:18 PM
From: GST  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 164684
 
"Look at the A/D lines of the NYSE and NASDAQ" Why should I look at such an irrelevant thing as that? The tech sector went off a cliff when technology capital spending hit the wall. Auto, housing and consumer spending have held up remarkably well. That is not to deny weakness in manufacturing these past few years in some areas. But it has little bearing on what is going on now. The phenomenon you speak about is more the giant sucking sound of money going into tech and out of other "value oriented" investments as people lost all sight of any concept of valuation and came to see technology as detachable from reality. Unfortunately for owners of shares in tech companies, share prices and reality became re-attached as capital spending came to a screeching halt. We are not down to realistic levels yet in tech stocks. It looks unavoidable that we will reach them as this year grinds prices down further.



To: Bill Harmond who wrote (130865)9/2/2001 8:52:56 PM
From: GST  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 164684
 
The war in Vietnam and the twin oil shocks all combined to produce a period of high inflation and low productivity growth -- a bad situation for stocks. In August of 1982 the market was pretty much washed out and ready for the bull that we rode until last year. The rape of the market in the name of the "new economy" could indeed be enough to destroy the good things accomplished earlier in the bull market. As for the use of the term "secular" -- your article uses it in a much watered down meaning of "enduring". As we have seen in the last year, there was nothing enduring about the illusory wealth created by trading worthless pieces of paper and calling it "investing in the new economy".