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To: tcmay who wrote (142633)	9/2/2001 9:58:07 PM
From: Dan3	Respond to of 186894

Taiwan’s notebook shipments to grow 1.8% in 2001 Huang Kung Tien, Taipei; Willie Teng, DigiTimes.com [Friday 31 August 2001] Taiwan’s notebook shipments this year will grow a mere 1.8% over 2000, according to a recent forecast from the Market Intelligence Center (MIC). Shipments will reach 12.9 million units, compared to last year’s 12.7 million units, MIC said. The originally expected boom in the third and fourth quarters now seems unrealistic. Declines in component and product prices have driven down Taiwan’s notebook production value. MIC pointed out that production value will slip about 10% from 2000’s US$13.5 billion to US$12.1 billion, and will likely drop another 4.2% to US$11.6 billion in 2002. And, thanks to AMD, Intel's share of this market is going from 99% to 85% - and at lower ASPs, to boot.

To: tcmay who wrote (142633)	9/2/2001 10:22:31 PM
From: BelowTheCrowd	Respond to of 186894

> Communications speeds _ALSO_ fit with Moore's Law, interestingly enough < Typical business user is accessing servers, databases and applications over a network that in most cases isn't particularly improved over a few years ago. Or, at the very least, is a bigger bottlenect than it was a few years ago. When you're getting most of your data over a network, you've got to have a fairly fat pipe to keep your processor chugging away. The typical response lags we see are network related. The typical corporate network has not moved as fast as Moore's Law. Corporate backbones have moved to 100mbps networks, in some cases even to gigabit ethernet, but the typical desktop is still getting data delivered to it a lot slower than the processor can handle it. > A typical disk drive is 30-80 GB, for--drum roll!!--roughly a factor of 1000x < Yeah, but the speeds have not increased that fast. And disk drive speed is the killer right now, with Windows depending so much on "virtual memory" to store stuff, and applications routinely accessing the disk, the ability to get stuff from the disk into the processor is critical. And it's not moving as fast as the processor can. It's a mechanical device and doesn't observe Moore's law, as far as speed goes. (Size has increased nicely, but that's much less of a concern to me than speed.) The machines are choking on the inability to get data in and out of the processor fast enough. It's less of an issue with consumer situations where the network doesn't intervene and where you're less likely to be running data-intensive applications that are routinely going to disk. Big issue in business though. mg

To: tcmay who wrote (142633)	9/3/2001 12:24:43 PM
From: Saturn V	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

Hi Tim, <... 1000X Factor> Nice analysis. 1000X in 15 years. Shall we call it Mays law ;-). However the 1000x improvement in processor speed was probably not true in the previous 15 years. The computing world was dominated by bipolar technology and improvements in speed were much slower. Bipolar Transistors were much faster than MOS in 60's and 70's, but as the feature sizes shrank MOS devices overtook bipolar speed. And MOS continues to improve at a record rate ! Another 1000x in the next 15years ! I hope so, but I doubt if we will get the same performance benefit of the last 15 years. A lot of transistors will be chewed up by the need to limit power dissipation on chip, and the on board cache will chew up most of the transistors, and fewer transistors will be used to gain more parallelism. The challenges for computer architects will be how to use the larger transistor budgets to improve thruput. SMT is the latest innovation which addresses some of the challenges, but there will need to be more innovations. As usual we shall see interesting times.