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To: fedhead who wrote (130877)	9/3/2001 3:17:24 AM
From: GST	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

Anindo: Has it crossed your mind that the bear in tech stocks could be a 3 to 5 year affair? I am not saying do you believe it to be true -- but have you really given any thought to that as a real possibility?

To: fedhead who wrote (130877)	9/3/2001 11:31:17 AM
From: Bill Harmond	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 164684

I'm not banking on a near-term recovery, only pointing out that tech was the last shoe to drop. One manager (I gotta tell you I'm exhausted by this long term thing by now) told me in late July that the Nasdaq was extended nearly three standard deviations downward from the mean reversion which indicated extremism. We'll see.

To: fedhead who wrote (130877)	9/3/2001 1:57:57 PM
From: GST	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

Anindo: It would be a good idea to think about "valuation, valuation, valuation" before buying stock. If there is any message in what has happened in the past two years, it is that valuations are the key, not prices, and certainly not how far something has declined in price. Valuations are based on sustainable growth in sales, growth in earnings and the degree of risk and cyclicality in both sales and earnings. The lack of earnings, the likelihood that growth was not sustainable, the risks of unproven trends and the cyclical nature of tech stocks all suggest that tech stocks on the whole should trade at a low multiple, and at a discount to the market. Tech stocks are nowhere near the levels which valuation would suggest they should be. If valuation wins out over blind faith and hope, then we are still in the middle of deflating a bubble. Good luck.