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Strategies & Market Trends : Fidelity Select Sector funds -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MoneyPenny who wrote (3888)	9/3/2001 10:02:27 AM
From: Angler	Respond to of 4916

Sharon: I found the article not only compelling but very descriptive using weather cycles as an analogy, totally making a lot of sense. The content outlook is certainly negative buttressed by actual developing trends from the beginning to the potential end of the Bear market which seeming may get worse under the author's scenarios. Tight water and energy reserves will impact the future stability in all regions as it is now in California, a sample of what's to come with gross populations vying for individual and collective shares of limited ever higher valued resources. Politics across state lines and even county ones could get increasingly nasty - not even considering nationalistic kinds such as in the Middle East already at war. The fact remains that our citizens were mostly apathetic to tax increases and government intrusions into their lives while wealth grew in their 401Ks and other investments. Even personal real estate inflation assuaged discontent (witness Silicon Valley homes and all that talk about reaching critical mass - Utopia in suburbia). Liberal credit plus cheap import prices in consumer goods and a strong dollar made this even more euphoric. The turnover of money faster and faster produced more profits, stock options, and more entrepreneurships - i.e. the dotcoms. But who does the money and assets really belong to and when the values shrink what goes away last - confidence with the loans - the only real winners being those that cashed out at the top. If American working consumers should lose confidence (holding on to their bucks), it appears that what the author predicts about a perfect storm may come to pass. You're in money markets. At least you have money. I think the only remedy for us right now would be to eliminate the capital gains taxes and free up new investment. Then the Fed should also increase minimum margin rates restraining speculation. More Fed discounts are not doing it for this Market, and many seniors are unhappy with money market rates. How many times can one refinance while anticipating layoffs? Will the Congress increase the national debt or raise entitlements with deficit spending in a long downturn - public employee counts rising and private business numbers declining? Winter is nigh. Will the brokers have to sell off their yachts? My thoughts after reading your reference. Angler

To: MoneyPenny who wrote (3888)	9/3/2001 10:12:57 AM
From: Julius Wong	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4916

Sharon: Mr. Puplava made many good points, but he's probably overly bearish. Julius