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To: AllansAlias who wrote (12172)	9/5/2001 7:15:23 PM
From: JRI	Respond to of 209892

Another good one from Berney.. schaeffersresearch.com

To: AllansAlias who wrote (12172)	9/5/2001 8:13:13 PM
From: The Freep	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

<<That 1746 on COMPX held, so it could still be the start of something decent to the upside, although at this point I don't buy it. If that goes, well, I want to be short.>> Just curious why you don't buy it here? Is it that the market really needs to "show you the money" for an upmove since the trend is clearly down? Or was there something else about the reversal that seemed less than satisfactory (like the swoon after the pop)? So many ways the market can go here. A rally during warnings season seems so unlikely that it is, therefore, probably likely. Did it start from the bottom today (and what caused the turnaround at that point? none of the indices seemed to be right at hard support, did they?)? Or do we just tease with some up followed by more down? I dunno. I do know we have some employment reports tomorrow, the non-manufacturing NAPM, a check up by NSM during hours, and INTC after hours. Based on reactions to the last two big economic reports (NAPM and PMI), the market could rally. But if the numbers contradict those reports. . . . Ahhh, to heck with it. Maybe now I'll finally go to the gym. the freep

To: AllansAlias who wrote (12172)	9/5/2001 10:06:31 PM
From: Perspective	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

I'm seeing references to today being "capitulation", a "successful retest" of the April lows. LOL! People don't even have a freaking concept of what capitulation means any more. It takes more than four hours of heavy selling to call it capitulation, for Pete's sake! Even in the context of the previous bull market, we'd have DAYS on end where the leading techs would go down double-digit percentages - like three days in a row. Just no bids. A quick peek at the most actives shows only a couple with even a double-digit percentage loss. That is NOT capitulation. It's a start, but we're still a long ways away. We can't seem to get to capitulation because every time we get close, the shorts get nervous and yank us back from the brink. Mind you, we may be in for yet another counter-trend rally here, as a bunch of the wrong-way options crowd is trying to get rich off the decline, but until there is a substantial new source of capital for the markets, or until we get GENUINE "Oh My God I'm Going to Lose Everything!" capitulation, we aren't done. The decay underneath the surface of this market is enormous, and while a great many important levels that were breached this AM were fixed this afternoon, I suspect they will be tested again very soon. Of course, if we take out COMPX 1790 with ease, I'll pay this short-covering rally its due respect and get a little more long-side hedging... BC