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To: velociraptor_ who wrote (12199)	9/5/2001 10:47:19 PM
From: AllansAlias	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 209892

Yup. I see no reasonable way to avoid testing the lows. When a technical target gets this close, the odds favour heavily that it will be kissed. Today's down was orderly and polite. Although the p/c measures are spiking enough to make me fear a s-t pop, the overall p/c open interest is unchanged! Fear? Don't make me laugh. Something's a brewin', you can feel it. Art Cashin said something today that was pretty funny and apropos: This market is like a two pound chicken trying to lay a three pound egg.

To: velociraptor_ who wrote (12199)	9/6/2001 12:21:21 AM
From: Perspective	Respond to of 209892

On the one hand, I think this gradual deflation is better for the economy because it prevents panic and the ensuing psychological impact. On the other, I think it must be inherently worse for the economy, because I as a short seller can make far more money in a gradual decline from 2000 to 1000 than in a sudden, one day plunge. Have you ever thought about that? If you short Naz at 2000, and it plunges to 1000, you nab 1000. But it it drops first to 1800, and you adjust to maintain constant exposure, and then it drops another 200, and you adjust to maintain constant exposure again, and so on, you end up taking far more poorly-invested dollars from the previous owner. Of course, I guess I make those dollars available when the market really does need them, when the real crisis shows up, so perhaps it is better that it unfolds this way. BC