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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: cnyndwllr who wrote (7460)	9/6/2001 6:06:40 AM
From: MetalTrader	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 23153

ed. apart just being argumentative, my point is to question constantly whatever reasoning compells investors to try and try again to catch the bottom. It's just not that important. Not for Oracle, not for Siebel, not for Schlumberger or Boeing. Why should an investor bash his head against the wall from January until today with Oracle which went from about 30 to 12, after a downtrend was clearly in place? During the same time a stock like Ansys has gone from 10 to 19 after it's uptrend was in place? They are both software companies. Be electric, take the route of least resistance. I suspect there are a couple reasons. One, the retail investor has gotten addicted to the volatility, and it's a hard habit to break. It's like playing the lottery. Damn the odds, there's 40 million at the end of the rainbow! The second is advertising. There is no question that a name like Oracle is branded into every investors mind. It is very hard to replace "Oracle" thinking with "Ansys" thinking. I am not atating that you are wrong about Oracle. I am also not concluding that your fundamental reasoning is flawed. What I AM saying is you don't know. Particularly in that the outlook for points of your fundamental reasoning haven't changed over the past year while the price being paid for the stock clearly has. The reasons you give for buying it at 12 haven't changed and were justifiable reasons to buy it at 45. I look at the behaviour of the oracle price and see no REASON to buy it as an investment. Oracle IS giving oscillator indicator buy signals this week which for the nimble have been trading opportunities 2 out of 4 times since Oracle began it nose dive. I suspect Oracle's a trading buy right now, but it is NOT an investment buy. Since you started with analogies let me finish with one. For years there have been stories of porpoises who saved drowning sailors by pulling the poor souls landward and depositing them on one idyllic beach or another. Research subsequently found that porpoises just like to play, and likely take as many sailors away from the beach as toward. You don't hear from those who exhausted were nearly to the beach when some f***ing porpoise showed up. Beware of porpoises that look like they want to play. You KNOW you can't trust the sharks, but don't bet too hard on the porpoises. MT